Film study: AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, and the Cougs

PROVO – Kelvin Sampson and the No. 8 Houston Coogs (20-2, 8-1) are in Provo for a late-night clash against the No. 16 BYU Co(u)gs (17-5, 5-4). The blue CoUgs are coming off one of the worst losses in the Kevin Young era at Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. On his radio show last night, Young mentioned going on the road and getting manhandled last year by Houston and said he looked forward to seeing the Coogs on his home court Saturday night. Be careful what you wish for…

The blue CoUgs are led by their big three of AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, and Rob Wright III. Dybansta is likely a top 2 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, and Saunders was the leading scorer in the Big 12 a year ago. Wright transferred from Baylor, where he was one of the top point guards in the conference last year. All three are incredible scorers, but I’ll go with Dybantsa as the head of the snake. As the Coogs did with Baba Miller of Cincinnati on Saturday, I think they will look to make Dybantsa take tough shots and lead his team in assists. I think they will BLITZ him at every opportunity and get the ball out of his hands.

This will be a tough road test for the Coogs. The Marriott Center in Provo is a fantastic atmosphere, and BYU has a ton of firepower on offense. This one could come down to coaching decisions and toughness plays.

BYU Offensive Notes

• The CoUgs are ranked #18 in the nation and 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring offense, averaging 87ppg. The Coogs will need to slow down at least one of their “Big 3” on the offensive end of the court!

• Kevin Young is a great offensive coach (see his Waffle House menu that he’s always walking around with). The CoUgs are ranked #37 in field goal percentage because they take really good shots, usually from their best scorers. They also get a lot of points in the paint.

• BYU is sporty in transition offense, ranking in the top 50 in the nation in fast-break points. Coach Sampson always emphasizes transition defense, so I would look for the Coogs to slow them down.

• BYU does not get much scoring at all out of its bench. Their big three score over 70% of their points. Out of 361 ranked teams, BYU is ranked #352 in bench points (12.4 ppg).

CoUgars Defensive Notes

• BYU plays half-court, man-to-man 90% of the time. They tend to switch rather than pick and roll. This could create some mismatches for the Coogs and allow Milos and Kingston to blow past their man on the switch to get paint touches to score or kick out to open shooters.
• The CoUgs like to zone about 10% of the time. They run a 1-2-2 and a 1-3-1 half-court zone at times. When they do, they like Dybantsa at the top of the zone to use his length to make passes difficult. They usually run a 2-3 vs. baseline out-of-bounds (BLOBs). They are fairly lazy when playing zone defense, and Coach Sampson is ELITE at carving up zone defenses.
• The CoUgars like to full-court press at times with a m2m trap as their most common press. Dybantsa guards the passer, and when the ball is in-bounded to the corner, he will immediately leave to trap. I could see the Coogs using Chris or Jojo to catch there and make a quick pass to lead a fast-break. Other times, he may spin and double-team the lead guard to make it difficult to get the ball in.
• They also like to run a 2-2-1 zone press. They like to make you run time off the clock, then hard trap as soon as you pass half-court to use the half-court line as a third defender.
• BYU is ranked #3 in the Big 12 in blocked shots per game. Keba Keita, Khadim Mboup, and AJ Dybantsa do a nice job of protecting the rim.
• The CoUgs are ranked 2nd in rebounding in the Big 12, only behind Arizona. The Coogs strive to get offensive rebounds. It will be important not to pick up cheap fouls by jumping over the top of a BYU player.

BYU Personnel (*Indicates likely starters)

*#3 – AJ Dybantsa – 6’9″ – FR – Forward – 24ppg, 6rpg, 4apg.

• Head of the snake;
• Tall/super athletic/three-level scorer;
• Potential #1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft;
• Leading the nation in scoring. Had a triple-double vs Eastern Washington (33 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists);
• Extremely good at getting downhill in the paint. Can finish with either hand;
• He is really good at driving off a pick-and-roll and getting to the rim. I’ll be interested in seeing him vs the BLITZ;
• Nice mid-range jumper off the bounce. Loves to shoot the step-back around the free-throw line;
• Really good at shot fakes to get the defender off-balance, so that he can jump into them and draw a foul. He’s ranked first in the Big 12 in free-throw attempts and makes (139-183: 76%). To compare, Kingston leads UH with 82 attempts.
• Solid three-point shooter (28-78: 36%); Made 5 vs Ok State Wednesday night.

*#15 – Richie Saunders – 6’5″ – SR – Guard – 20ppg, 6rpg, 2apg.

• Strong three-level scoring guard. Sneaky athletic;
• Really good three-point shooter (63-159: 40%). Can shoot it from DEEP. Quick release;
• Does a really good job of not picking up his dribble. Keeps the play alive and is looking to score;
• Good at using a variety of moves to score in the paint. Really nice up-and-under;
• Does a nice job of moving without the basketball. Good at cutting to the basket;

*#1 – Robert Wright III – 6’1″ – SO – Guard – (Baylor) – 17ppg, 4rpg, 5apg.

• Smaller “do it all” point guard from Baylor;
• Nice floater with both hands in the paint;
• Good at finishing with contact at the rim;
• Outstanding three-point shooter (38-90, 42%);
• Excellent at getting paint touches and finding open shooters;
• A threat to throw his head back when dribbling to force a foul call.

*#13 – Keba Keita – 6’8″ – SR – Forward – (Utah) – 7ppg, 8rpg, 2bpg.

• Big/strong post player. Legitimate tough guy in the Big 12;
• Excellent rebounder on both ends of the court. UH has to be STRONG and box out on defense. He will look to shove you under the rim and get you out of position to get a defensive rebound, like Toppin did at Texas Tech;
• Very good shot-blocker;
• Always a lob threat in the pick and roll;
• Solid scorer around the rim. Not going to shoot many outside of the paint.

*#30 – Kennard Davis Jr. – 6’6″ – JR – Guard – (Southern Illinois) – 7ppg, 3rpg.

• “Three and D” specialist guard;
• 98 of his 134 shot attempts have been from behind the arc, but he has been struggling as of late (30-98: 31%). Can shoot it from DEEP;
• Not bad at driving to the rim going right;
• Tough defender.

#5 – Mihailo Boskovic – 6’10” – SR – Forward – (KK Dynamic, Igokea) – 4ppg, 2rpg.

• Big man off the bench. Prefers to play outside of the arc;
• Capable outside shooter (11-34: 32%);
• Not bad in the paint;
• Playing a little harder than he has in the past. Had been super finesse previously.

#7 – Khadim Mboup – 6’9″ – RS FR – Forward – (NBA Academy Africa) – 2ppg, 5rpg.

• Primarily an athletic defensive/rebounding forward;
• Made his first career three-pointer vs Kansas (2-6, 33%);
• Not very good on the offensive end. Best at offensive rebound put-backs;
• Hard worker on defense. Good rebounder and shot-blocker;

#34 – Abdullah Ahmed – 6’10” – SO – Forward – (Westchester Knicks) – 2ppg, 4rpg.

• Tall back-up post player from the G-League;
• Good offensive rebounder. Affects shots around the rim;
• Zero skill as an offensive threat. Everything he scores is off of offensive boards;

#6 – Aleksej Kostić – 6’4″ – FR – Guard – (Arkadia Traiskirchen Lions) – 3ppg, 1rpg.

• Three-point shooter off the bench;
• 29 of his 32 FG attempts have been from beyond the arc (10-29: 35%).

BYU Cheat Sheet

What I’ll Be Watching…

1. Dybantsa vs. the UH BLITZ: I think Coach Sampson tries to get the ball out of his hands on the pick and roll and blitzes him to death. He’s a special talent, and if he can split the double team, he could be at the rim in a flash.
2. Rebounding: BYU does a nice job on the defensive glass. Houston does a great job on the offensive glass. Sounds like a war in the paint Saturday night!
3. Pace of Play: BYU wants to play fast and score 100 points. I don’t think Houston minds playing faster this season, but I think they will want to play slow and limit BYU’s offensive touches in this one.
4. Current vs. Culture: BYU has paid a lot of money to get really good, really fast. They will aim to build a new team each year with highly rated players. Houston has been building this program for over a decade, piece by piece. Get your popcorn ready…this one should be fun!!