After a week off the court due to COVID-19 positives and contact tracing, the Houston Cougars should remain relatively steady in the AP Poll this week. There’s a reasonable chance the Cougars jump to #6 but could they slide down? Will be interesting to see how voters treat a ‘quaranteam.’
Update: The Cougars moved up one spot to #6 in the AP Poll.
News: the Houston Cougars move up a spot to #6 in the new AP Top 25. #GoCoogs ? by @HTX_Seen_By_Me pic.twitter.com/OGHSJWlsLD
— GoCoogs.com (@gocoogs1) December 14, 2020
This week, we add several new features: we take a look at some specific computer calculations and we look at how every AP voter has filled out their ballot each week of the regular season. We are still tracking early ballots, too.
One of my favorite sites to get basketball info is BartTorvik.com. Torvik sorts and splices the data in interesting ways. Below is his TourneyCast, which is based on 10,000 simulations. As of today, Bart has UH as a three-seed in the tournament with a 49.4% chance to make it to the Sweet 16 and a 15% chance to make it to the Final Four.
According to the simulator, only six teams have a better shot at the Sweet 16 and just 4 have a better chance at winning the national title. Obviously, there’s very little data so far this season but it’s a fun pick-me-up on a Monday morning.
Here are the AP ballots from the last three weeks. This table works best in landscape view on a device.
| Pollster | Organization | 12/14 | 12/7 | 11/30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Ballou | CBS Austin | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| Chris Basnett | Lincoln JS | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Mark Berman | Roanoke Times | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Sam Blum | Dallas News | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| David Borges | Connecticut Insider | 8 | 8 | 23 |
| Rick Bozich | WDRB (KY) | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Jeff Borzello | ESPN (NYC) | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| Kevin Brockway | Gainesville Sun (FL) | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| Lauren Brownlow | WRAL (NC) | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| Joe Buettner | Norman Transcript | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| Jeff Call | Deseret News (UT) | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| Jerry Carino | Gannett (NJ) | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| David Cloninger | The State (SC) | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| Clayton Collier | WATN (TN) | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| James Crepea | Oregonian | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Seth Davis | The Athletic (NYC) | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| Luke DeCock | News & Observer (VA) | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Donna Ditota | Syracuse P-S | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Doug Doughty | Roanoke Times | 6 | 5 | 17 |
| Jack Ebling | WSYM (MI) | 8 | NV | 13 |
| Wayne Epps | Richmond T-D (VA) | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Marcus Fuller | St. Paul PP (MN) | 8 | 14 | 14 |
| Geoff Grammer | ABQ Journal (NM) | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| Adam Grosbard | Orange County Register | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Jordan Hansen | Missoulian (MT) | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Steve Hewitt | Boston Herald | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| Brian Holland | WVLA Baton Rouge | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Bob Holt | Arkansas D-G | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| Donald Hunt | Philly Tribune | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| Cecil Hurt | Tuscaloosa News | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| David Jablonski | Dayton News | 8 | 7 | 17 |
| Justin Jackson | Morgantown DP | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| Ethan Joyce | W-S Journal (NC) | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Joe Juliano | Philly Inquirer | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| Lauren Kirschman | News Tribune (WA) | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Paul Klee | Denver Gazette | 6 | NV | 6 |
| Zach Klein | WSB (Atlanta) | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Chad Leistikow | DM Register (IA) | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Dave Matter | St. Louis P-D | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| Kevin McNamara | Providence Journal | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| Stephen Means | Cleveland.com | 10 | 10 | 15 |
| Craig Meyer | Pittsburgh P-G | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Sheldon Mickles | BR Advocate (LA) | 7 | 11 | 14 |
| Chris Murray | Nevada Sports Net | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| Matt Murschel | Orlando Sentinel | 6 | 7 | 16 |
| Jesse Newell | KC Star | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| Bruce Pascoe | Arizona D-S | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Dave Preston | WTOP Radio (DC) | 9 | 12 | |
| Troy Provost-Heron | Knoxville DT | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Jeff Rabjohns | 247 Sports (IN) | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| BJ Rains | Idaho P-T | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Scott Richey | News Gazette (IL) | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| Jon Rothstein | CBS Sports (NYC) | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Shannon Ryan | Chicago Tribune | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| Ben Steele | Milwaukee JS | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Nick Suss | Clarion Ledger (MS) | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| Edgar Thompson | Orlando Sentinel | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| Dick Vitale | ESPN (FL) | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| Josh Vitale | Mont Advertiser (AL) | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Ken Weinman | 105.7 The Fan (MD) | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| John Werner | Waco T-H | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Scott Wolf | LA Daily News | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| Jon Wilner | San Jose MN | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Point Total: | 1090 | 949 | ||
| Final Ranking: | 7 | 10 | ||
Most major computer rankings have the Coogs in the top 10 in the country:
| Ranking System | 12/14 | 12/7 | 11/30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| KenPom: | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| T-Rank: | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| ESPN BPI: | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| Sagarin: | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Massey: | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Massey Composite: | 5 | 3 | 6 |
