Film study: Scouting the Cincinnati Bearcats

Today’s game at Fifth Third Arena is a black out game as the Bearcats (8-5) host the #8 Houston Cougars (12-1). I haven’t been able to figure this Cincinnati team out yet. On paper, they have a super-talented roster, but their record indicates a program that hasn’t figured out how to make that roster work together. Only Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James played significant minutes last year. James was removed from the team at the start of the season but returned three games ago. Speaking of Jizzle…

Jizzle James will be my “Head of the Snake” as long as he is on the team. Coach Sampson mentioned in his media availability that James brings tons of swagger to the Bearcats. They are simply a better team with Jizzle on the roster. The addition of 7’2” Moustapha Thiam is HUGE (literally); he was outstanding last year at UCF and adds a ton of talent on both ends of the court.

Cincinnati has not beaten Houston since February 2020 (0-12 since), which was the season before Wes Miller was hired as the Bearcats’ head coach. It’s do or die for Miller this season. I can’t imagine him coming back next year without extreme improvement and a visit to the NCAA Tournament.

This would be a monumental win for the Bearcats to begin Big 12 action. I’d expect the crowd to be insane for the blackout game against the back-to-back champs. I like the Coogs in this one, but UC has plenty of talent to pull the upset.

Cincinnati Offensive Breakdown

Offensively, Cincinnati has guards that can knock down three-pointers, make tough shots off the bounce, and get to the rim. Their bigs are best in the paint or rolling off of pick-and-rolls.

Their big men are monsters on the offensive glass, and the length and athleticism of Thiam and Baba Miller could give the Coogs some issues. Getting Kalifa Sakho back is huge for Houston, especially if the starters get into foul trouble.

They have multiple guys who flop on their jump shots. It will be important to contest with high hands, without jumping into their legs. They have not been a great outside shooting team so far this year (31%), so they will likely try to get into the paint to score and draw fouls. Cincinnati has been a poor free-throw shooting team (63% – 349th out of 363 teams). If you need to foul late, I’d look to foul Thiam (56%) or Miller (59%).

Bearcats Defensive Notes

• Cincinnati is primarily a man-to-man defensive team. They have run 875 possessions of m2m vs 34 possessions of zone defense. They have looked to full-court press 105 times.
• Cincy will occasionally sprinkle in a 1-3-1 or a 2-3 half-court zone.
• They run a “run and jump” trap when they are in desperation mode. They don’t run it well, and it can lead to wide-open shots or layups if you are strong with the ball.
• The Bearcats will full-court press a good bit. They like the full-court m2m press, where sometimes they turn it into a “run and jump,” where they’ll leave their man to trap. They also run a 1-2-1-1 zone diamond press. The key to beating the diamond is to get the ball to the middle of the court, where they can’t trap you.

Bearcat Cheat Sheet

Cincy Personnel (*Indicates likely starters)

*#2 – Jizzle James – 6’3″ – JR – Guard – 14ppg, 2rpg, 3apg.

• Removed from the team earlier in the year; Made his triumphant return on 12-17 vs Alabama State. Head of the snake (HOTS);
• Crafty shot-making guard;
• Loves the mid-range jumper off the bounce;
• Strong finisher at the rim;
• Doesn’t shoot a ton of threes, but is a really good outside shooter (6-12, 50%). Best from the corner.

*#52 – Moustapha Thiam – 7’2″ – SO – Center – (UCF) – 11ppg, 7rpg, 2bpg.

• Came to Cincinnati with his former UCF assistant coach Mamadou N’Diaye;
• MASSIVE center. Maybe the best big man in the Big 12;
• Likes to go over his left shoulder for the right-handed hook in the paint; Force him to get it out of his right hand and make him turn back to the other shoulder;
• Nice mid-range, face-up game to shoot or make a move to the basket;
• Really good roller in the pick and roll game;
• Strong rebounder on both ends and major shot-blocker;
• Will shoot it from deep, but hasn’t been as good from out there this year; (3-16, 19%);

*#1 – Day Day Thomas – 6’1″ – GR SR – Guard – (Kilgore College) – 13ppg, 4rpg, 4apg.

• Really good three-level scoring point guard;
• Outstanding three-point shooter: 75 of his 122 shot attempts have been from beyond the arc. He doesn’t need a ton of space to get his shot off (35-75, 47%);
• Has a nice step-back jumper and makes tough shots. Can shoot from extremely deep;
• Capable of scoring at the rim.

*#18 – Baba Miller – 6’11” – SR – Forward – (Florida State, Florida Atlantic) – 14ppg, 12rpg, 3apg.

• Super tall/athletic forward. Double-Double machine;
• Unbelievably good offensive rebounder. Must box him out;
• Extremely bouncy at the rim;
• Capable of taking it off the bounce to get to the rim;
• Not a good outside shooter, but isn’t scared to shoot them (2-16, 13%);
• Solid shot-blocker;

*#5 – Sencire Harris – 6’4″ – JR – Guard – (Illinois, West Virginia) – 7ppg, 3rpg.

• LEFTY! Athletic guard. “Glue Guy”;
• Not a good outside shooter as a guard and doesn’t shoot many (3-12, 25%);
• Wants to do his business in the paint. Tough finisher at the rim;
• Elite on-ball defender. Gave the Coogs problems defensively at WV last year;

#10 – Shon Abaev – 6’8″ – FR – Guard – 10ppg, 4rpg.

• Former McDonald’s All-American;
• LEFTY! Big/athleti /three-level scoring guard;
• Shoots a lot of three-pointers, but hasn’t been consistent yet (20-80, 25%). Really long dip in his outside shot;
• Capable of getting to the rim or shooting off the bounce;
• He draws a ton of fouls on his jumper by kicking his leg out. IMO, refs should be able to review that, and if they determine it’s a flop, it should be an automatic technical foul;

#11 – Kerr Kiirsa – 6’3″ – GR SR – Guard – (Arizona, West Virginia, Kentucky) – 8ppg, 2rpg.

• World Traveler! At his 4th College in 6 years. He’s also in his 6th year of being my least favorite player in the country;
• Three-point shooting guard;
• 86 of his 93 shot attempts have been from beyond the arc. He has been average from three so far (28-86, 33%);

#32 – Jalen Celestine – 6’7″ – GR SR – Guard – (California, Baylor) – 5ppg, 2rpg.

• LEFTY! “Three and D” player;
• 48 of his 59 shot attempts have been from three (He’s been average like he was at Baylor) (16-48, 33%);
• He struggled greatly vs UH last season.

#24 – Tyler McKinley – 6’9″ – RS FR – Forward – 2ppg, 3rpg.

• Really big backup forward. Works hard;
• Not a major offensive threat;
• Decent roller in the pick and roll game;
• Sets a lot of illegal screens. I’d bet Eman draws an offensive foul on one of his screens;

What I’ll Be Watching…

1. Rebounding vs. the Cincinnati post players. This will be a HUGE test for the Coogs. Cincinnati is massive and athletic up front. We’ve seen it mentioned recently, but it will take all five players attacking the defensive glass to limit Cincy from gaining extra opportunities.
2. Three-point shooting. Cincinnati only shoots 31% as a team. MTSU shot less than that going into the UH game, but made 40% vs the Coogs. Houston shoots 35% as a team, but will need to make a few more than usual to prevent Cincinnati from locking down the lane.
3. Zone Defense? We saw Houston run some zone defense for the first time in years vs Arkansas. It looked pretty good. Could they break it out vs the length of Cincinnati? If they do, it will be imperative to keep a close eye on Day Day Thomas and Kerr Kiirsa.
4. True Road Test. This will be the first true road game this season, and “all road games are street fights.” Who will step up into a leadership role and put the team on his back? I’ll be looking for that answer Saturday afternoon!

Deets

Houston vs. Cincinnati
Fifth Third Bank Arena
Cincinnati, Ohio
1 p.m. on Fox

CATS! Postgame

After the game, join the GoCoogs Gang for the Cougar After Thoughts Show!