Film study: the pesky Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati is 11-10 (3-5) heading into their Saturday morning game against No. 10 Houston (18-2 , 6-1). The Coogs are undefeated at home this season, and the Bearcats are 0-5 in road games.

In the past, I’ve said that as long as Jizzle James is on the Cincinnati roster, he would be my head of the snake. Wellllll, I’ve changed my mind. Florida Atlantic transfer Baba Miller is playing out of his mind and is a real problem for the Coogs. Baba can crash the glass on both ends and could cause the UH big men into foul trouble (what?). He is a double-double machine and also does a great job of blocking and affecting shots around the basket. Day-Day Thomas was a problem for the Coogs last time (especially in the first half, when he had a personal 10-0 kill shot run). Moustapha Thiam has been a thorn in UH’s side the last two years (2024-25 at UCF) because of his sheer size and talent. But Miller is “the guy” for them right now.

The Bearcats always play Houston tough. They have been dreadful on the road this season, and I believe Houston will be locked in. Is Houston the most overlooked team in the country? I would never want to play against a Sampson-led team with a chip on their shoulder. IF the big men can stay on the court (it’ll be a challenge), I could see them winning big at home Saturday.

Cincinnati Offensive Breakdown

Cincinnati does a nice job sharing the ball. They are currently 4th in the Big 12 in assists per game at 16.8, and do a good job of finding the open man.
But…the Bearcats have one of the worst scoring offenses in the nation. They are #278 nationally in scoring offense at 72.3 points per game. A major reason for this is their lack of bench scoring.
Cincy shoots tons of three-pointers. They are ranked third in the Big 12 in three-point attempts, but are dead last in three-point percentage and tenth in makes.
Continuing with their offensive issues, due to their abundance of three-point shooting, Cincinnati doesn’t get to the free-throw line often and isn’t good when they get there. The Bearcats are 13th in the Big 12 in free-throw attempts per game, 15th in free-throw makes per game, and 16th in free-throw percentage.

Bearcats Defensive Notes

What they lack on offense, they make up for on defense. The Bearcats are ranked #31 nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 67 ppg. They will want this game to be a rock fight.
Cincinnati does a good job forcing turnovers (4th in the Big 12). I’d look for them to try to trap the UH guards and force them into tough passes. They have a couple of full-court presses to create turnovers, but primarily use a full-court, man-to-man (m2m) press that pushes opponents late into the shot clock. At times, they will use a “run and jump” to create a steal. It appears to be regular m2m, but if you dribble towards one of their other defenders, they will leave their man to trap.
Cincy used a 1-3-1 half-court zone a good bit vs Baylor on Wednesday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them use it on Saturday.
With Thiam and Miller patrolling the paint, Cincinnati is 5th in the Big 12 in blocked shots per game. They have great length in the post and create problems for other big-men around the paint.

Cincy Personnel (*Indicates likely starters)

*#18 – Baba Miller – 6’11” – SR – Forward – (Florida State, Florida Atlantic) – 14ppg, 11rpg.

NEW HEAD OF THE SNAKE!!!!;
Super tall/athletic forward. Ranked #23 nationally in double-doubles with 9;
Unbelievably good offensive rebounder. Must box him out;
Extremely bouncy at the rim;
Capable of taking it off the bounce to get to the rim;
Solid shot-blocker;
Not a good outside shooter, but isn’t scared to shoot them (3-16, 13%). Has made one since we last saw him. He’s 1/15 in that stretch. Yikes!

*#1 – Day Day Thomas – 6’1″ – GR SR – Guard – (Kilgore College) – 11ppg, 3rpg.

Really good three-level scoring point guard;
Outstanding three-point shooter: 116 of his 196 shot attempts have been from beyond the arc. He doesn’t need a ton of space to get his shot off (47-116, 41%);
Has a nice step-back jumper and makes tough shots. Can shoot from extremely deep;
Capable of scoring at the rim.

*#52 – Moustapha Thiam – 7’2″ – SO – Center – (UCF) – 11ppg, 6rpg.

MASSIVE center. One of the most talented big men in the Big 12;
Likes to go over his left shoulder for the right-handed hook in the paint. Force him to get it out of his right hand and make him turn back to the other shoulder;
Nice mid-range, face-up game to shoot or make a move to the basket;
Really good roller in the pick and roll game;
Strong rebounder on both ends and major shot-blocker;
Will shoot it from deep, but hasn’t been as good from out there this year (6-27, 22%).

*#2 – Jizzle James – 6’3″ – JR – Guard – 11ppg, 3rpg.

Crafty shot-making guard;
Loves the mid-range jumper off the bounce;
Strong finisher at the rim;
His three-point shooting has come back down to Earth since the last time we saw him (14-41, 34%).

*#32 – Jalen Celestine – 6’7″ – GR SR – Guard – (California, Baylor) – 6ppg, 3rpg.

LEFTY! “Three and D” player. He’s been shooting a lot more since the last time we saw him;
95 of his 118 shot attempts have been from three (He’s been average like he was at Baylor) (32-95, 34%);
He struggled greatly vs UH last season while at Baylor (2/11 in two games).

#11 – Kerr Kiirsa – 6’3″ – GR SR – Guard – (Arizona, West Virginia, Kentucky) – 6ppg, 2rpg.

World Traveler! At his 4th college in 6 years. He’s also in his 6th year of being my least favorite player in the country;
He’s 25 years old.
Three-point shooting guard;
92 of his 100 shot attempts have been from beyond the arc. He has been average from three so far (30-92, 33%).

#24 – Tyler McKinley – 6’9″ – RS FR – Forward – 2ppg, 3rpg.

Really big backup forward. Works hard;
Not a major offensive threat;
Decent roller in the pick and roll game;
Sets a lot of illegal screens. I’d bet Eman draws an offensive foul on one of his screens.

#7 – Keyshaun Tillery – 6’1″ – FR – Guard – 3ppg, 1rpg.

Back up point guard; Was highly ranked coming out of HS;
Getting more minutes recently;
Looks WAY smaller than 6’1″
Not a major outside shooting threat yet; (6-22: 27%);
Not bad at getting the ball in the paint to score;
Pesky defender.

#5 – Sencire Harris – 6’4″ – JR – Guard – (Illinois, West Virginia) – 7ppg, 3rpg.

Was OUT Wednesday vs Baylor due to sickness;
LEFTY!
Athletic guard. Glue guy;
Not a good outside shooter as a guard and doesn’t shoot many (3-24, 13%); Is 0/12 since we last saw him;
Wants to do his business in the paint. Tough finisher at the rim;
Elite on-ball defender. Gave the Coogs problems defensively at WV last year.

#10 – Shon Abaev – 6’8″ – FR – Guard – 8ppg, 3rpg.

Was OUT Wednesday vs Baylor with a lower body injury;
Former McDonald’s All-American;
LEFTY!
Big/athletic/three-level scoring guard;
Shoots a lot of three-pointers, but hasn’t been consistent yet (24-97: 25%). Really long dip in his outside shot;
Capable of getting to the rim or shooting off the bounce;
He draws a ton of fouls on his jumper by kicking his leg out.

What I’ll Be Watching…

Rebounding: This will be a blood bath as always between the two teams. Cenac and Tugler vs. Thiam and Miller is cinema. And by cinema, I mean a horror film. Rated R. Kids, cover your eyes when shots go up!
Foul Trouble: Cincinnati had Jojo and Chris in foul trouble early last time. Kalifa played excellently on the road. The Coogs need all three of them to compete for the entire game!
Bench Opportunities: I don’t see any chance that Chase McCarty plays in this one. He’s incredibly tough (all 256 guys are!). He’s listed as doubtful. If he’s out, I’ll be looking for who gets more opportunities. The fan base is clamoring for Mercy Miller minutes. I’d love to see him get a shot early in this one.
Outside Shooting: Both teams need to shoot it well in this one to win, due to the basket protection in the paint. I think the Coogs will look to deny Day Day Thomas. If Cincinnati tries to cut off Kingston, I’d look for Milos and Eman to have a big shooting day.

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