Scouting report: Round two of Houston vs. Texas Tech

It seems like yesterday when the #6 Houston Cougars (17-1, 5-0) faced off against the #12 Texas Tech Red Raiders (15-4, 5-1). Tech’s lone conference loss came at the hands of Houston, in a 69-65 victory for the Cougars just 18 days ago. The two will face off again in a blackout game in Lubbock, with College Game Day in town and snow on the ground. While it will be freezing outside, it should be electric inside the United Supermarkets Arena.

The Coogs held the head of the snake, Christian Anderson, to 7 points and 7 assists in the first meeting. He will be my head of the snake in this one as well. JT Toppin struggled in the first half, but had a terrific second half in the last game. My “x-factor” for them was LeJuan Watts, but he played extremely timidly at times in that game. He disappeared. I would expect him to look to shine in front of the home crowd. The two other outside shooters, Jaylen Petty and Donovan Atwell, joined Toppin as their three double-digit scorers. I would look for the Coogs to try to run them both off the three-point line and force them to put the ball on the floor.

It won’t be easy in Lubbock. Tech laid the smackdown on BYU last weekend. But if the Coogs can defend the three and create extra opportunities on the offensive glass, I love for them to pick up the tough road win. As always, between these two…it could come down to a toughness play. Who will make it? My money is on the Coogs.

Texas Tech Offensive Notes

Texas Tech is an outstanding three-point shooting team. They are ranked #7 nationally (#1 in Big 12) in three-pointers made per game, and #11 nationally (#2 in Big 12) in three-point percentage. I think the Coogs will try to force Anderson, Petty, and Atwell put the ball on the floor, rather than shooting open three-pointers.
Because Tech shoots so many three-pointers, they don’t get to the free-throw line very often. They are ranked #290 nationally in free-throw attempts and #299 in free throws made. They also shoot 70% as a team, which ranks them #241 nationally.
The Red Raiders are not deep. Texas Tech’s starters play 80% of their total minutes. Their bench is #355 out of 361 teams nationally in scoring. If UH can get a few guys in foul trouble, forcing them to the bench is a win.
Tech plays at one of the slowest paces nationally, ranked #289 nationally in fast-break points. They want to slow it down and feed Toppin inside, or have Anderson in the pick-and-roll game, allowing him to create and score, or kick it out to open shooters.

Red Raiders Defensive Notes

Although Toppin does a great job rebounding on both ends of the court, Tech is not a great rebounding team. They are ranked #128 nationally in defensive rebounding. The Coogs should look to attack the offensive glass.
The Red Raiders are ranked #264 nationally in forced turnovers. They play tough, tough defense, but don’t take many chances to create steal opportunities.
Tech is not an elite defensive team. They are average but pretty sound, ranked #169 in scoring defense. Although they give up a lot of points, their ability to shoot from the three-point line keeps them in close games.

Texas Tech Personnel (*Indicates likely starters)

*#15 – JT Toppin – 6’9″ – JR – Forward – (New Mexico) – 22ppg, 11rpg, 2bpg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 38 minutes, 18 points, 11 rebounds (2 offensive), 5 blocks, 4 fouls, 1 swift kick to Ramon Walker’s groin;
LEFTY!
Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year. Ranked #4 nationally in double-doubles;
If he’s allowed to go over his right shoulder with the left-handed hook…it’s over. Force him to go right and bring the MONSTER TRAP. He is improved going back to his right this year, though;
Good roller in their pick and roll game. Finds open space and sits. They love to find him in the short roll;
Has struggled this season from shooting the three, but has improved since last playing UH (10-35: 29%);
Ranked #3 nationally in offensive rebounding (averaging almost 5 ORB/G). Have to keep him off the glass;
Toppin is a solid shot blocker @ 2bpg.

*#4 – Christian Anderson – 6’3″ – SO – Guard – 20ppg, 4rpg, 7apg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 40 minutes, 7 points (half-court 3 @ the buzzer), 3 rebounds, 7 assists;
Head of the snake! Ranked #2 nationally in minutes per game @ 38:25;
Crazy good three-level scoring point guard.
Extremely patient off the bounce. Gets it in the paint, then surveys if he wants to shoot, pass, or continue to the rim. Most guys have their mind made up and take a rushed/bad shot;
Elite three-point shooter. Can shoot from DEEP (68-150: 45%);
Crafty finisher at the rim;
Has developed into an elite point guard, great at getting his teammates involved. He’s 4th nationally with 7.7 assists per game;
Must be careful when guarding him. He will throw his head back when dribbling or kick his leg out when shooting if you guard him too closely.

*#3 – LeJuan Watts – 6’6″ – RS JR – Forward – (Eastern Washington, Washington State) – 13ppg, 7rpg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 29 minutes, 5 points, 7 rebounds, 4 fouls;
Tall/thick forward. X-Factor for them;
Uses his body well. If someone smaller is guarding him, he will back them down and make a post move. If someone bigger is guarding him, he can take them off the bounce or shoot the long-ball;
Really good in the pick and roll. Can shoot it on the roll/pop or drive to draw a foul;
Strong finisher off the bounce in the paint. Draws a lot of fouls/and ones. Can shoot with either hand;
Good three-point shooter (15-43, 35%).

*#12 – Donovan Atwell – 6’5″ – SR – Guard – (UNC-Greensboro) – 12ppg, 3rpg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 39 minutes, 13 points, 3-9 from 3pt, 5 rebounds;
LEFTY!
Three-point shooting specialist guard;
151 of his 165 shot attempts have been from beyond the arc! Run him off the three-point line (65-151, 43%);
Capable off the bounce, but is primarily a catch-and-shoot guy;
They like to use him in the pick and pop game. If UH is slow to blitz, they will find him for an open three-point opportunity. He’s the type of player that will make you pay.

*#11 – Jaylen Petty – 6’1″ – FR – Guard – 9ppg, 4rpg, 2apg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 36 minutes, 20 points, 5-9 from 3pt, 3 rebounds, 4 turnovers;
Small guard. I’d suspect he’s closer to 5’9″-5’10”;
Really good three-point shooter, especially from the corner (34-93, 37%); Will kick his leg out to draw a foul if he feels rushed (did so against UH in the first game);
He’s probably not going to try to get to the rim. I’d close out on him hard to ensure he doesn’t get a clean outside shot;
Elite free-throw shooter (22-23, 96%). Hasn’t missed one since before the first UH game;

#1 – Tyeree Bryan – 6’5″ – SR – Guard – (Santa Clara, Charleston Southern, Indian River State College) – 5ppg, 3rpg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 3 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound;
Tall “Three and D” guard off the bench;
Can take it off the bounce, but prefers to hang out around the perimeter and shoot wide-open three-pointers;
BEST from the wing three, but hasn’t shot it great overall (16-53: 30%);

#6 – Leon Horner – 6’4″ – SO – Guard – 3ppg, 2rpg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 11 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds;
Decent back-up guard;
Likes to backdoor cut to the basket. Don’t lose him;
He REALLY wants to force his way to the basket. I’d give him a little space beyond the three-point line; Only 7 3pt attempts (3-7, 43%).

#13 – Marial Akuentok – 6’11” – RS FR – Center – 1ppg, 2rpg.

vs Houston in Game 1: DND (Did Not Dress);
Really big post player off the bench;
Has been injured most of the year. Has played limited minutes recently;
Pretty good in the pick and roll game;
1-1 (100%) from beyond the arc;

#8 – Nolan Groves – 6’5″ – FR – Guard – 1ppg, 1rpg.

vs Houston in Game 1: 4 minutes, 0 points, 1 foul;
Not likely to play much;
They’ve had to use him at times, as they have been riddled with injuries;
Capable of making a three if he gets in, but not a threat anywhere else; (4-17: 24%).

What I’ll Be Watching…

Defending the three-point shot: Tech has one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation. I’ll be watching to see who gets hot for them and if UH changes their defensive coverages accordingly.
Rebounding: Houston had 12 offensive rebounds last time the two teams met. I think they have an opportunity to get even more.
Chris Cenac Jr. vs. LeJuan Watts. SNACKS had a double-double in the first match-up, while Watts was timid. I would look for them both to try to stand out in this one.
Toughness: We all know Toughest Team Wins. Who will it be in this one?

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