No. 6 Houston 17-3 (9-0) returns home to face #22 Texas Tech 16-4 (7-2) in a massive Big 12 game Saturday at 5 pm in the Fertitta Center. Second-year Red Raider head coach Grant McCasland has his guys playing really well. They are on a five-game winning streak, including a blow-out home win over Arizona. As you know, the Coogs are on a thirteen-game winning streak, with their last loss coming in November.

Tech has a talented roster, and several plausible choices could have been my “Head of the Snake” for this one. Transfer point guard Elijah Hawkins is one of the best distributors in the nation, finding his guys in great spots. Chance McMillian is one of the best shooters in the Big 12, with every shot feeling like it will go in. Darrion Williams is their glue guy who can score inside and outside and brings toughness. However, Williams is a “game-time decision” due to a bad ankle (he missed the TCU game on Wednesday).

For this one, I will go with New Mexico transfer JT Toppin as my “Head of the Snake.” He is their leading scorer and rebounder, but what impresses me the most is his ability to find open shooters out of the double-team. The Coogs must be aware of his skip-passing ability and rush out to defend open shooters.

Texas Tech is not deep, only playing 7-8 guys regularly, but there’s no drop-off when they go to the bench. Any of the Red Raiders could be starters. Conversely, seeing if Coach Sampson plays Emanuel Sharp in this one will be interesting. I could see him sitting for at least the next two games to let his ankle recover.

Fertitta Center should be electric on Saturday. This game has everything: Don Chaney’s #24 will be retired, the premiere of the “Houston Blue” jerseys, a ton of class of 2026 football recruits will be on hand, and UH is playing an in-state rival with a 65-year history between the programs. It is also a Q1 opportunity for both teams.

I expect an all-out street fight on Saturday evening!

Texas Tech National Rankings

• Net – #12; Houston Ranked #2
• Kenpom – #11; Houston Ranked #1
• AP Poll – #22; Houston Ranked #6
• Coaches Poll – #19; Houston Ranked #5

Texas Tech Offensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#15 – Effective FG Percentage: .568

#17 – Field Goal Percentage: 49.04%

#21 – Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.59

#23 – Thee Point Percentage: 38.04%

#34 – Free Throw Percentage: 76.57%

#36- Scoring Offense: 81.4

#36 – Assists Per Game: 17

Red Raider Defensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#9 – Scoring Margin: +16

#27 – Scoring Defense: 64.6

#29 – Rebound Margin: +6

Texas Tech Offensive Notes

• Tech is a good passing team: they are patient and usually find open shots rather than settling for contested shots. The Coogs will bother them with their “Blitz/MONSTER” package but must recover quickly to prevent those wide-open outside shots.
• The Red Raiders have several guys who can shoot outside. Chance McMillian and Kerwin Walton are both ELITE shooters, while Elijah Hawkins, Christian Anderson, and Kevin Overton will knock down open outside shots. It will be important for the Coogs to identify anyone getting hot.
• Texas Tech loves to play through JT Toppin in the post and let him look to score or skip passes to open shooters. Houston will need to hustle out on open shooters.

On Wednesday night,

• TCU forced three shot clock violations against Tech. I’d expect the Coogs’ streak of shot clock violations to continue!

Red Raider Defensive Notes

• Tech mostly plays half-court, deny, man-to-man defense.
• They run a full-court, man-to-man defense after some free-throw attempts.

Texas Tech Personnel Report (* Indicates Probable Starters)

*#15 – JT Toppin – 6’9″ – SO – Forward – (New Mexico) – 16ppg, 9rpg.

• Projected first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft;
• LEFTY;
• Big/lengthy/athletic forward;
• Really good in the paint;
• Not a major outside-shooting threat, but is capable;
• Solid rebounder and shot-blocker;
• GREAT skip passer – UH must recover quickly;
• Toppin vs Tugler should feed families! What a match-up between two great athletes.
• Nationally Ranked Top 50: #40 – Rebounds Per Game: 8.9; #43 – Field Goal Percentage: 55.85%;

*#0 – Chance McMillian – 6’3″ – Super SR – Guard – (Grand Canyon) – 15ppg, 4rpg, 46% 3pt.

• High level three-point shooting guard;
• Outstanding from beyond the arc – 48/104 (46%);
• Like LJ Cryer, he’s the kind of shooter that it feels like it’s going to go in every time he shoots;
• Improved at getting in the paint to score;
• He will push off at times (when he doesn’t have the ball) to get open. The UH coaches should make the officials aware early to be on the lookout;

*#5 – Darrion Williams – 6’6″ – JR – Guard/ Forward – (Nevada) – 15ppg, 5rpg.

• Big body/savvy/guard/forward;
• Did not play against TCU w/ankle injury. Game-time decision vs Houston;
• Very versatile at playing inside or outside on offense;
• Has taken 221 shots (most on the team) and is 21/63 from 3pt (33%);

*#3- Elijah Hawkins – 5’11” – SR – Guard – (Minnesota) – 9ppg, 3rpg, 6apg.

• One of the best-distributing guards in the nation. Averages 6 assists per game;
• Capable three-point shooter;
• Nationally Ranked Top 50: #15- Assists: 110; #20 – Assist/Turnover Ratio: 3.06; #21 – Assists Per Game: 6.1;

*#24 – Kerwin Walton – 6’5″ – Super SR – Guard – (North Carolina) – 4ppg, 1rpg, 39% 3pt.

• Top notch outside shooting guard;
• Although his scoring is way down this season;
• Good three-point shooter – 24/61 (39%);
• At his best in the corner for three.

#33 – Federiko (Fede) Federiko – 6’11” – SR – Forward – (Pittsburgh) – 7ppg, 5rpg.

• Tall back-up post player; Will likely start if Darrion Williams can’t play;
• Solid in the paint;
• Excellent shot-blocker and rebounder;
• Has never attempted a three in a college game;
• Poor free-throw shooter.

#4 – Christian Anderson – 6’2″ – FR – Guard – 9ppg, 3rpg.

• Athletic/three-level scoring/freshman guard;
• Extremely confident freshman;
• Really good three-point shooter; 33/80 (41%); Can make the step-back three;
• Capable of getting to the rim or shooting the pull-up jumper.

#1 – Kevin Overton – 6’5″ – SO – Guard – (Drake) – 9ppg, 4rpg.

• LEFTY;
• Taller back-up guard;
• Solid mid-range shooter;
• Great finisher in the paint;
• Good three-point shooter; 25/72 (35%)

Keys to Victory

1. Slow Toppin down in the post. JT Toppin is a top-notch post-player who can score in various ways. The Coogs will look to MONSTER him down there but must be aware of his skip passing ability out of double-teams and rush out on the open shooters.
2. Get out on open shooters. McMillian and Walton are elite shooters in the Big 12. I would use my “Korver Defense” against McMillian and have someone glued to him. However, that can’t happen when you “blitz, so the Coogs must communicate at an elite level and not allow wide-open shots.
3. Create chaos. The Coogs have been great this year at deflecting passes, ultimately leading to turnovers. They can do the same against Tech using their “Blitz/MONSTER” package.
4. Rebound on both ends. Tech has solid, athletic big men, but they aren’t bullies like the UH frontcourt. The Coogs must bully them on both ends of the court and attack the glass like crazy. They are elite at creating “dagger 3s” and will need to make a few on Saturday.
5. Toughest team wins. No one has been tougher than the Coogs in the Fertitta Center in over two years. That streak needs to continue on Saturday to keep the winning streak alive. Emanuel and Ramon bring a major toughness to the game, but if they are out, someone else will need to step up in a major way. The big charge? The loose ball? The rejection at the rim? Who will make the big hustle plays?