There’s no insider information on the coaching search because there’s no information to be had. GoCoogs doesn’t feature a “short list” with every conceivable name on it. Then, when one of the 20 becomes the coach, we tell you, “SEE? We nailed it!” That’s insulting.

There are candidates that everyone knows. Some insiders tell you who they like, which is silly because no one has all the facts. We don’t know a coach’s motivations; if he’s waiting for a better gig; if he wants to make his move now; what his wife thinks; what the agent thinks; if the salary and incentives and contract years and lifestyle are appealing enough; if he believes he can build a staff here; what he thinks about UH leadership; and if he believes he can win here. And probably 100 other variables.

the daily #122 | 11/30/2023 | Archives
 

I can’t tell you who the perfect fit will be because I don’t have all the facts. Who can he recruit at QB? Does he have a detailed plan to make NIL work at UH? How will he fundraise for the new ops building? How can he compete in the Big 12? Can he attract a staff who can coach? Can they recruit Texas? What’s his plan for the portal? How can he affect season ticket sales, as UH has another year of lowered Big 12 media rights, paying off Dana Holgorsen, potentially paying off his current school, and hiring a new staff? How active and effective will he be in the community? With the media? With UH boosters? Does he understand how hard the job is?

But here’s what we do know, from some fact-gathering, talking to people, knowing UH decision-makers, and using a tiny bit of common sense:

It’s a legacy-defining decision for Dr. Khator, Athletics Director Chris Pezman, and whoever is selected. It also affects Tilman Fertitta’s legacy, at least as it relates to UH. Never has a University of Houston coach walked into a better conference or had better facilities. It’s the greatest opportunity UH has ever had to offer.
 

Kliff Kingsbury, Jeff Traylor, and Gary Patterson are not frontline candidates. One might get the job, but that means UH’s plans did not play out, and the school had to settle. If Pez were going after those guys, they would have been hired by now (or no later than today, Thursday, 11/30).

There’s too much happening to wait if you have your guy selected. For one, getting coaches and staff into place is critical. The transfer portal opens on Monday, and a coach needs all the time possible to recruit his new roster before any of them head to the portal. He must also understand his new roster to focus on recruiting the right guys in the portal.

In addition, there will only be two official visit weekends left before signing day, and a coach needs time to improve Dana Holgorsen’s disastrous 2024 recruiting. You’d pull the trigger on any of these guys today to give them as much time to get organized and as many people hired in critical roles before it hits the fan on Monday. If they were the guy.

None of Kingsbury, Traylor, or Patterson are coaching in a championship game this weekend, so they should be available now. Because the hire has not been made, nor have we seen the coordinated leaks that go out before a hire is made, tells me UH is waiting for someone coaching this weekend. Or, it’s possible they have not identified someone (but that seems unlikely).
 

My thought is that UH brass has decided on their guy and has already had discussions about money, staffing, and timing with his agent, Bryan Harlan. UH is waiting til after Saturday to talk to the coach directly. That coach, Willie Fritz, is likely talking to Harlan 5+ times a day and Pez is in constant contact with him.

Many times, when you’re waiting for a regular season to end to talk to a guy, the in-person first meeting happens at the coach’s house. Some coaches won’t even take a call from an AD or do a Zoom if they’re preparing for the final game. UH fans know that other coaches will be quite active looking for a new job during the season but there are still a few that focus on their guys, giving total attention when they demand the same. A rare trait in this era. Fritz is one of those guys.

I would not be surprised if Chris Pezman is at Fritz’s house Saturday night, in the English Turn neighborhood in southeast New Orleans, ready to sign his man once the AAC Championship game ends. Because of the truncated schedule, Pez knows he needs to make a hire ASAP—preferably this weekend.
 

Barry Odom is on many lists as a candidate and is also playing this weekend in the MWC Championship game. But I think Odom is a smokescreen. He went 25-25 at Mizzou (13-17 in the SEC) and has had a nice 9-3 year in his first season at UNLV. Despite the nine wins, Massey rates UNLV 68th with an SOS of 96. They’re 68 in the ESPN FPI and 49 in the S+P (89th in defense, which is Odom’s specialty). Surely, UH isn’t waiting around for a guy with one good season in his career whose best win in 2023 is over 8-4 Air Force or 8-4 Wyoming.

To compare: Fritz has built programs going back to Sam Houston State (he had successful runs at Blinn and Central Missouri before that). Sam had played football for 98 years, averaging 4.5 wins a year. Fritz won 40 games in four years there, finishing #2 nationally twice.

In two seasons at Georgia Southern, he went 17-7 and had started to build something when Tulane came calling. The Green Wave will play in its 5th bowl in the last six years under Willie (before him, TU played in five bowls since 1980). He’s won 23 games in the last two years (with two to play) – something Tulane hadn’t done since going 19-2 in 1930-31.

Since UH began football in 1946, Tulane has had 21 seasons of one or two wins. 21! They’ve had three years of 10+ wins: the perfect season in 1998 under Tommy Bowden and the last two under Willie Fritz.
 

I don’t know if UH is hiring Fritz. I’m not advocating for him. I don’t know if he’s the right guy. But what I do know is that he’s the type of program builder Houston needs. The timing, the lack of legitimate information, the situations of the other known candidates, and the upcoming calendar points to him as being the man.

But I’m always open to surprises.