I studied Texas State four times: their games against Texas, Jarvis Christian, Sam Houston, and LeTourneau.

Texas State has a few guys who can make outside shots, but their offense is most efficient when they can score at the rim. That said, Houston’s interior defense will be problematic for them, as the Coogs do a great job guarding the paint. The Bobcats will need guys to make more outside shots than normal just to stay in the game.

the daily #143 | 12/21/2023 | Archives
 

Texas State Overview
I expect Dylan Dawson to make the most of the opportunity to play in his hometown. He is an excellent outside shooter and will attempt numerous three-point shots. Last week, he had career-highs in buckets (8), three-pointers (5), and points (23) at Sam Houston.

Defensively, Texas State mainly plays half-court M2M defense. They struggle defending the pick and roll and rebounding. These are two huge advantages for the Coogs. I expect our post-players to have massive games. Everyone should get plenty of playing time if things go as I expect. This is an excellent opportunity for some of our bench guys to step up and show that they deserve more minutes.

Although Jordan Mason is their leading scorer, I believe Kaden Gumbs is the “Head of the Snake.” He is a freshman point guard that gets the ball where it needs to go. He is a capable three level scorer and a pesky defender, but he’s a freshman playing against the best senior guards in the nation. He will turn it over. I expect UH to force over twenty turnovers in this game.

This is a good home match-up for UH following the Texas A&M game and heading into Christmas break. Texas State has some good pieces, but the Coogs should be too much for them. The Bobcats will be in for a long evening Thursday in the Fertitta Center.

Texas State Offense

• At their best when getting into the lane to score. 44% of their shots in the half-court are in the lane.
• Jordan Mason is their leading scorer at 17ppg. He is a three level scorer that is best getting in the lane to score or draw a foul.
• Brandon Love is their best post-player. He will struggle against our “Monster” double-team. He is 100% ALL left-hand and will not look to score with his right hand.
• Dylan Dawson is their best outside threat. He is a classic “Three and D” guy and can knock it down from anywhere beyond the arc, although he tends to shoot best from the corners.
• Likes to push the ball in transition to get easy looks. They shoot 42% on transition 3s. Must find Dylan Dawson on the fast break!
• They are loose with the ball. UH should be able to get several steals.

Texas State Defense

• They primarily play man-to-man (M2M) in the half-court.
• They may try to play some full-court M2M or a “run and jump” press (matched up with their man coverage to make it look like M2M, but then one leaves his man to double-team the ball handler). They do not do this often but may have to try it if they get down early.
• Not a great rebounding team. Houston should dominate the boards on both ends.
• They struggle to guard the post. It could be a huge game for Roberts, Francis, and Tugler, and I expect to see a good bit of Ced Lath. I could see a Francis or Tugler double-double happening. Could be Ja’Vier’s time to shine.
• They have a tough time defending the pick and roll. UH will be able to capitalize on guards scoring off the bounce, bigs scoring on the roll, or shooters getting open looks when guards drive and kick.
• UH’s key will be to move the ball, reverse it, and go inside.

Personnel (Red Indicates Probable Starters)

Note: O’Garro and Turner have alternating starts.

#5- Jordan Mason- 6’4” So.- 17ppg, 4rpg.

• Three Level Scorer.
• Best at scoring off the dribble pull-up in the lane.
• Good at drawing fouls to get to the free throw line.
• Needs it in his right hand to score.

#24- Brandon Love- 6’9” Jr.- 12ppg, 6rpg, 3bpg.

• LEFTY- ALL left hand!!
• Long/Athletic Big Man.
• Good rebounder.
• Really good shot blocker and active defender.
• Best on offense going over his right shoulder to use his left hand in the paint. (Watch if UH tries to force him the other way. He is ineffective when using his right hand to score.)
• Not bad in the pick and roll.

#11- Kaden Gumbs- 6’2” Fr.- 10ppg, 5rpg, 4apg.

• Quick point guard.
• Likes the dribble pull-up jumper.
• Capable 3 level scorer.
• Active defender.
• Will be very good before he graduates. Tons of upside.

#0- Dylan Dawson- 6’3” Sr.- 11ppg, 2rpg.

• Confident “Three and D” guy. Really good shooter from the corner. (68% of his shot attempts are from beyond the arc)
• Can shoot off the dribble but prefers the set three.
• Has attempted 64 three-point shots. Next on the team has attempted 25.
• Local guy. Played at Atascocita HS (Same as Fabian White Jr).

#23- Joshua O’Garro- 6’6” Jr.- 8ppg, 6rpg.

• LEFTY.
• Strong/Athletic Forward.
• Long wingspan used on defense.
• Not a major outside threat, but is capable. Decent around the rim.

#30- Christian Turner- 6’7” Jr.- 7ppg, 5rpg.

• Strong/Athletic Forward.
• Best when playing in the high post and in transition.
• Not overly skilled on offense.
• Pretty good defender on forwards.

#2- Dontae Horne- 6’4” Jr.- 7ppg, 3rpg.

• Capable three-point shooter.
• Best when able to get a shot in the paint.
• Active hands on defense.
• Loves to leak out for transition offense opportunities.

#15- Elijah Tate- 6’4” Jr.- 4ppg, 2rpg.

• Capable three level scorer.
• Best when attacking the rim.

#25- Chris Nix- 6’9” Gr.- 4ppg, 4rpg.

• Big body post player.
• Used mostly as a post defender and a screen setter in the pick and roll.
• Not bad at finishing around the basket.

#1- Tyrel Morgan- 6’5” Gr.- 14ppg, 8rpg.

• Has not played in the last nine games. Unsure if he will play against us.
• One of their best players.
• Was a 220(!)% shooter in his only two games (73% FG, 80% 3pt, 67% FT).

Keys to Victory

1. Don’t underestimate them. The worst thing a great team can do is give a less talented team confidence. UH needs to put them away early.
2. Gumbs is the head of the snake. He’s not their leading scorer, but he “makes them go” and is a capable three level scorer. He does a good job of pushing in transition and getting the ball to the hot shooter and does a nice job getting to the paint for the pull-up jumper. He’s a freshman, and the UH guards should make this game his Nightmare Before Christmas.
3. Dominate the glass on both ends. Houston is a superior athletic and rebounding team. Love and Nix do a pretty good job, but it should be a big night for the trio of Roberts, Francis, and Tugler.
4. Turn them over on defense. They do not like to be pressured. When UH blitzes their ball screens and monsters them in the post, they will throw it away often. Those could lead to great transition looks for Shead and Co.!
5. Bench Guys: Make the most of your opportunities. This should be a good game to get everyone involved! If guys want more minutes, they need to shine in games like this. Without Terrance Arceneaux, there is an opportunity to step up and show the coaching staff that they want and deserve those minutes?