Connecticut might be the worst FBS team the Cougars have played in five years. They are similar to the 2016 Texas State team that UH beat on the road, 64-3. Perhaps UConn is a little better.
The Huskies have had one passing TD since October 16th. Since that day, the kicker has outscored receivers, 15-6.
UConn averages 13.44 ppg against their 9 FBS opponents this year. They have scored 0 or 1 TD in five of those nine FBS games. UConn had offensive “outbursts” against Vanderbilt and FCS Holy Cross (28 points each). In the other nine games, they’ve averaged 11.2 ppg.
UConn has played 540 minutes against FBS teams this year. They have, surprisingly, led for 101 of those minutes. They’ve also trailed by 21 points or more for 215 minutes.
Corner Jeremy Lucien (9 starts) entered the transfer portal this week. He co-led the team in INTs and pass breakups. Clemson and UCF picked on corner Tre Wortham #7 quite a bit in the last two games. He was targeted 24 times with receivers catching 16 balls for 179 yards.
With Lucien gone, Kaleb Anthony #12 has played more and has been an easy mark. Look for Tune to challenge him when he’s in the game (played 55 snaps the last two weeks).
Husky linebacker Swenson #6 (not to imply he’s husky!) will drop back into nickel coverage. UH quarterbacks will look for this matchup.
UConn is 130th in 3rd down conversions – dead last – at 22.7%. UH is #3 nationally in third-down conversion defense. UConn has converted just 4 of their last 36 attempts on third down.
The Huskies are 127th in completion percentage, 129th in first downs, with 17 passes intercepted (129th). Of teams that intend to throw the ball, UConn’s 49.6% completion percentage is among the 10-worst in FBS over the last decade (excluding triple-option/service academies).
UConn averages 17 ppg vs. UH in three meetings and has never scored more than 20 against the Cougars.
Schools that have scored more than 20 vs. UH: Grambling, Tennessee Tech, Sam Houston State, Eastern Washington, Lamar, Wichita State, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, Villanova, Trinity College, East Texas State, West Texas State, and Hardin-Simmons.
UConn struggles in pass blocking at both tackle spots – watch for UH to target Van Demark #74 and Lundt #75. Center Sidney Walker #53 has also struggled – I expect UH to put a lot of pressure on the QB – perhaps similar to the Tulane game plan.
UConn has thrown for 200 yards just twice this season (Vanderbilt, MTSU). Fresno State, Purdue, Clemson, Army, and UMass have held them under 130 yards in the air while eight opponents have held the Huskies under 130 yards rushing.
Travis Jones (DL #57) has been their best player, a fringe NFL guy that plays about 80% of his snaps in the B Gap.
Sagarin (who rates FBS and FCS teams together) has UConn at 190th in the country – behind 60 FCS schools. Among FBS programs, only UMass is worse.
Uconn’s best Sagarin rating of the last four years came in 2020. Then, they were rated #169th nationally and, most notably, did not play a single game.
UConn has averaged 26 ppg over the last decade…