Houston (23-4, 15-1) can secure at least a tie for the Big 12 Championship with a Big Monday at Texas Tech (21-6, 12-4). Tech pulled off the year’s best Big 12 win in an upset in Houston, which put them on the national stage for the 2024-2025 season.

There was a ton of controversy in that game, including the ejections of superstar JT Toppin, head coach Grant McCasland, and a tech given to J’Wan Roberts. Tonight is a chance for revenge for UH’s only conference loss in the last 55 weeks and sets the stage for the Cougars to cut down the nets next Monday night.

JT Toppin was my “head of the snake” for the last meeting and probably should be again, but I’m going with sharp-shooter Chance McMillian this time. He is probably the best shooter in the country, especially in clutch moments. He never misses a big three-pointer when his team needs it. You could argue for Toppin, McMillian, Darrion Williams, or Elijah Hawkins as their “head of the snake,” as each plays a vital role and is a top-notch talent.

When I write about Texas Tech, I always tell people they have no “fluff” on the court. Most teams roll out 1-2 guys with no business playing in a Big 12 basketball game, but that’s not true about the Red Raiders. They play eight guys, and all of them could play/start on almost any team in the nation. They are incredibly well-coached and played disciplined ball even after McCasland was ejected. This game will be an all-out war in the mean streets of Lubbock (was that a tumbleweed?)! It will come down to which coaching staff makes the proper adjustments at a key moment in the game.

Texas Tech National Rankings

• Net – #7; Houston Ranked #3
• Kenpom – #7; Houston Ranked #3
• AP Poll – #9; Houston Ranked #5
• Coaches Poll – #10; Houston Ranked #5

Texas Tech Offensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#15 – Three Point Percentage: 38.35%

#18 – Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.58

#20 – Assists Per Game: 17

#20 – Effective Field Goal Percentage: .563%

#29 – Scoring Offense: 81.4

#32 – Three Pointers Per Game: 9.8

#33 – Field Goal Percentage: 48.16%

#37 – Free Throw Percentage: 76.57%

Red Raider Defensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#9 – Scoring Margin: +14

#41 – Rebound Margin: +5

#46 – Scoring Defense: 66.5

Texas Tech Offensive Notes

• Tech is a good passing team: they are patient and usually find open shots rather than settling for contested shots. Houston will bother them with their “Blitz/MONSTER” package but must recover quickly to prevent those wide-open outside shots.
• The Red Raiders have several guys who can shoot outside. Chance McMillian and Kerwin Walton are both elite shooters, while Elijah Hawkins, Christian Anderson, and Kevin Overton will knock down open outside shots. It will be important for the Coogs to identify anyone getting hot.
• Texas Tech loves to play through JT Toppin in the post and let him look to score or skip passes to open shooters. Houston will need to hustle out on open shooters.

Red Raider Defensive Notes

• Tech mostly plays half-court, deny, man-to-man defense.
• They run a full-court, man-to-man defense after some free-throw attempts.

Texas Tech Personnel Report (* Indicates Probable Starters)

*#15 – JT Toppin – 6’9″ – SO – Forward – (New Mexico) – 17ppg, 9rpg, 1bpg.

• Projected first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft;
• LEFTY;
• Big/lengthy/athletic forward;
• Really good in the paint;
• Good for his size, but not great three-point shooter: 10/31 (32%);
• Solid rebounder and shot-blocker;
• GREAT skip passer – UH must recover quickly;
• Nationally Ranked Top 50: #20 – Double-Doubles: 11; #27 – Rebounds Per Game: 9.1; #40 – Rebounds (Offensive) Per Game: 3.04; #43 – Rebounds (Defensive) Per Game: 6.09.

*#0 – Chance McMillian – 6’3″ – Super SR – Guard – (Grand Canyon) – 15ppg, 4rpg, 45% 3pt.

• High level three-point shooting guard;
• 186% Shooter: 53% FG – 45% 3pt – 88% FT = ELITE SHOOTER;
• Outstanding from beyond the arc – 64/141 (45%);
• Like LJ Cryer, he’s the kind of shooter that it feels like it’s going to go in every time he shoots;
• Improved at getting in the paint to score;
• He will push off at times (when he doesn’t have the ball) to get open. The UH coaches should make the officials aware early to be on the lookout;
• Nationally Ranked Top 50: Free Throw Percentage: 87.84%.

*#5 – Darrion Williams – 6’6″ – JR – Guard/ Forward – (Nevada) – 15ppg, 5rpg.

• Big body/savvy/guard/forward;
• Very versatile at playing inside or outside on offense;
• Has taken 310 shots (most on the team) and is 34/97 from 3pt (35%).

*#3- Elijah Hawkins – 5’11” – SR – Guard – (Minnesota) – 9ppg, 3rpg, 6.5apg.

• One of the best-distributing guards in the nation. Averages 6.5 assists per game;
• Decent three-point shooter – 38/113 (34%). At his best when he steps into his three-point attempt;
• Nationally Ranked Top 50: #9 – Assist/Turnover Ratio: 3.26; #9 – Assists Per Game: 6.5; #21 – Assists: 163.

*#24 – Kerwin Walton – 6’5″ – Super SR – Guard – (North Carolina) – 5ppg, 1rpg, 39% 3pt.

• Top notch outside shooting guard;
• His scoring is way down this season;
• Solid three-point shooter – 34/88 (39%);
• At his best in the corner for three.

#33 – Federiko (“Fede Two Times”) Federiko – 6’11” – SR – Forward – (Pittsburgh) – 6ppg, 5rpg.

• Tall back-up post player;
• Solid in the paint;
• Excellent shot-blocker and rebounder;
• Has never attempted a three in a college game;
• Poor free-throw shooter: 20/47 (43%).

#4 – Christian Anderson – 6’2″ – FR – Guard – 10ppg, 3rpg.

• Athletic/three-level scoring/freshman guard;
• Extremely confident freshman;
• Outstanding three-point shooter; 50/120 (42%); Can make the step-back three;
• can get to the rim or knock down the pull-up jumper.
• Kicks his leg out on three-point attempts to draw fouls. I would let the refs know early and hope they give him a “flop technical.”

#1 – Kevin Overton – 6’5″ – SO – Guard – (Drake) – 8ppg, 4rpg.

• LEFTY;
• Did not play in the first match-up;
• Taller back-up guard;
• Solid mid-range shooter;
• Great finisher in the paint;
• Decent three-point shooter: 28/86 (33%).

Keys to Victory

1. Slow Toppin down in the post. JT Toppin is a top-notch post-player who can score in various ways. The Coogs will look to MONSTER him down there but must be aware of his skip passing ability out of double-teams and rush out on the open shooters.
2. Get out on open shooters. McMillian and Walton are elite shooters in the Big 12. I would use my “Korver Defense” against McMillian and have someone glued to him. However, that can’t happen when you “blitz,” so the Coogs must communicate at an elite level and not allow wide-open shots.
3. Create chaos. The Coogs have been great this year at deflecting passes, ultimately leading to turnovers. They can do the same against Tech using their “Blitz/MONSTER” package.
4. Rebound on both ends. Tech has solid, athletic big men, but they aren’t bullies like the UH frontcourt. The Coogs must bully them on both ends of the court and attack the glass like crazy. They are elite at creating “dagger 3s” and must make a few on Monday.
5. Payback. Nothing else needs to be said. Just win.