Film study: a deep dive into the Baylor Bears

WACO – Saturday is another Big 12 road game, another street fight, and another white-out against the No. 7 Houston Cougars (14-1, 2-0). The Coogs travel to Waco this weekend for a match-up with their in-state rival, Baylor Bears (10-4, 0-2). Although the Bears are 0-2 in the conference, they will be hyped up for this match-up vs Houston. They are well-coached and very familiar with this UH program.

The first thing that jumps out about Baylor is their length and athleticism, and the perfect encapsulation of that is my head of the snake, Cameron Carr. Kelvin called the Tennessee transfer a “scorer AND a shooter.” I was really impressed with Carr on film: he is tall, has an extremely long wing-span, can get to the basket, shoot the three, or deliver thunderous dunks in transition. I was also impressed with Tounde Yessoufou in the McDonald’s All-American game and with what I’ve seen of him at Baylor.

The Bears added former NBA draft pick James Nnaji for the second semester. His film did not blow me away, but he is definitely a good defender and a tough rebounder. He could be a storyline on Saturday, but I wouldn’t get too carried away.

It’s always tough to win on the road at any Big 12 arena. The Coogs have a better team, but Coach Scott Drew replaced every single player on his roster with talented players. It should be a game of two different styles: Baylor is top 15 in the nation in scoring offense, and Houston is ranked top 5 in scoring defense. It should be a fantastic match-up!

Baylor Offensive Notes

• The Bears want to push the ball in transition and get easy baskets before the UH’s defense is set. They are 14th nationally in fast-break points.
• Baylor isn’t a great shooting team, but they have a ton of length and athleticism. They are really good at crashing the glass and creating extra opportunities. They are 10th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game. Because they don’t shoot a ton of three-pointers, they get in the paint often and shoot at a high percentage (#18 in overall field-goal percentage and #26 nationally in effective field-goal percentage).
• When Rob Williams transferred to BYU, they didn’t replace him with a true point guard, which means they are a threat to turn the ball over when pressured. The blitz vs. pick-and-rolls and the monster trap in the post will give Baylor issues. Even without a true point guard, they all share the ball to take good shots. The Bears are ranked #26 nationally in assists.
• Baylor has attempted 108 more free throws than Houston. They want to drive the ball and crash the offensive glass to draw fouls. JoJo, NO!!! They are ranked #43 in the nation at free throws made per game.
• They don’t have much depth. The Bears will likely only play eight guys, and the three coming off the bench are not major scorers. They are ranked #286 nationally in bench scoring.

Bears Defensive Notes

• Baylor has played 850 possessions of man-to-man (m2m) defense and 150 possessions of zone defense. They also like to press occasionally (61 possessions so far this season).
• When they play M2M defense, they tend to play one-on-one in the post (whereas UH brings the monster trap). They like to hedge on pick-and-rolls and are slow to recover at times. I would look to get Cenac in the pick-and-roll/pop. He could have a big game from the mid-range, whether they play m2m or zone.
• Sampson could also get JoJo in the short/mid-roll, and he could have a big offensive game. IF he can make that little push shot he likes.
• Baylor will likely play some 1-3-1 half-court, zone defense. Houston carved it up last season at Fertitta Center (I’d look to flash Cenac to the free-throw line, looking for him to score or kick out to an open shooter).
• They run a couple of different m2m, full-court presses. When they guard the inbounder, they like to trap the first pass. When they don’t guard the inbounder, they make it difficult to get the ball in-bounds and typically play straight man-to-man, full-court defense once the opponent throws it in.
• With their elite length, they have several guys who can block and affect shots in the paint. You can’t avoid contact with shot blockers. Get into their body and draw the foul. Baylor is ranked 19th in the nation in both blocked shots per game.

Baylor Cheat Sheet

Baylor Personnel (*Indicates likely starters)

*#43 – Cameron Carr – 6’5″ – RS SO – Guard – (Tennessee) – 21ppg, 5rpg, 2apg, 1.5bpg.

• Head of the snake;
• SUPER athletic guard. Extremely long wing-span;
• Three-level scorer and can play WAY above the rim;
• Very explosive driving to the basket (best going right). A threat to throw his head back on the drive to bait a foul. Will also drive into traffic and throw his arms up to draw a foul;
• Leads the team in free-throw attempts, 25 more than the second most (64-80: 80%);
• Good three-point shooter. Best at catch and shoot, rather than shooting it off the bounce (28-72: 39%).

*#24 – Tounde Yessoufou – 6’5″ – FR – Guard – 18ppg, 6rpg, 2apg, 2spg.

• Super athletic, three-level scoring guard;
• He is to Anthony Edwards, what Dylan Raiola is to Patrick Mahomes;
• Really likes the corner three (21-70: 30%);
• Crashes the offensive glass hard for second chance opportunities;
• Nice mid-range fadeaway jumper.

*#0 – Dan Skillings Jr. – 6’6″ – SR – Guard – (Cincinnati) – 12ppg, 7rpg, 3apg.

• Tall, athletic, combo-guard;
• Works really hard. Coach Sampson really liked him at Cincinnati;
• At his best in getting into the paint to score or draw a foul;
• He is a capable three-point shooter (13-41: 32%);
• Solid defender and rebounder.

*#5 – Obi Agbim – 6’3″ – 5th SR – Guard – (Northeastern JUCO, Ft Lewis College, Wyoming) – 11ppg, 3rpg, 4apg.

• Athletic guard;
• Nice floater in the paint;
• Really good outside shooter (best from the wing/slot). Leads the team in three-point attempts (31-82: 38%).

*#12 – Michael Rataj – 6’8″ – SR – Guard – (Oregon State) – 10ppg, 6rpg.

• Long, athletic guard;
• Best at cutting to the basket. Not GREAT at driving to the basket, but moves well without the ball and finds open spaces around the rim;
• Capable outside shooter, but not great (8-27, 30%).

#46 – James Nnaji – 7’0″ – FR – Center – (Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, New York Knicks, FC Barcelona) – 4ppg, 5rpg.

• A different sort of world traveler than others we have seen; Tall former NBA draft pick;
• Extremely raw on offense. He does not have great hands and gets stripped pretty often around the basket;
• Solid at blocking and affecting shots. Does a great job jumping straight up;
• Not a threat outside of the paint. Ugly free-throw shooter.

#10 – Isaac Williams IV – 6’1″ – SO – Guard – (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) – 11ppg, 2rpg, 3apg.

• Back-up point guard;
• Drive-first guard. Good at getting all the way to the rim or pulling up in the paint;
• He doesn’t shoot a ton of three-pointers, but is really good when he does (8-17: 47%).

#44 – Caden Powell – 6’9″ – SR – Center – (Wyoming, Rice) – 7ppg, 8rpg, 1bpg.

• Long athletic post player. Works extremely hard!;
• LOVES to crash the offensive glass. Would’ve been a great Coog;
• Not a great low-post scorer (throw it in, make a move, score);
• He does the dirty work to get his buckets and is really good at it;
• Does a decent job rolling on the pick and roll.

What I’ll Be Watching…

1. Style differences. Houston has shown they can play fast or slow. I THINK they will want to slow things down and limit Baylor, which averages over 90 points per game. It should be a fascinating match-up.
2. Rebounding. Both teams want to CRASH the boards on both ends. It should be a bloodbath down there, and it will not be for the weak-hearted. The Coogs will need help from their guards on the defensive glass in this one.
3. Depth. Baylor has very little depth. Houston has great depth but not much conference-game experience. I could see JoJjo getting in foul trouble in this one. The UH guards will need to defend by moving their feet and not reaching. They can’t afford to lose anyone due to fouls.