Film study: Keaton Wagler, David Mirkovic and the Illini

With 30 wins in five consecutive seasons, the 30-6 Houston Cougars meet the 26-8 Illinois Illini in a Sweet 16 matchup. Coach Brad Underwood has built a roster of international talent, surrounding it with other starters, including Kylan Boswell, Jake Davis, and freshman phenom Keaton Wagler.

It was a toss-up for me between Wagler and David Mirkovic for the head of the snake. When that’s the case, I always go with who has the ball the most. Mirkovic is super talented and reminds me of a poor man’s college version of Luka Doncic. He’s super poised, can shoot, hits the glass hard on both ends of the court, and makes his teammates better. But Keaton Wagler is their motor. He oozes talent, can score from anywhere, gets to the free-throw line, and gets the ball where it needs to go. He is likely a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, and it should be pure cinema between him and Kingston Flemings tonight.

This should be the best matchup of the Sweet 16. Both teams are ultra-talented, with NBA-level talent all over the place. Rebounding and getting stops down the stretch will win it.

Illinois Offensive Notes

• The Illini are ranked 17th nationally in scoring offense with 84.7 points per game. They have 7(ish) guys who can potentially lead them in scoring. The Coogs will need to be dialed in on their defensive assignments in this one.
• Illinois is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, ranking 12th in attempts per game (31.4) and 9th in makes per game (11).
• Illinois is also a real problem on the offensive glass. David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers love to crash the offensive glass, and it will take all five Coogs’ defensive rebounding in this one. The Illini are ranked 16th nationally in offensive rebounds per game (13.35).
• The Illini are ranked 20th nationally in assist/turnover ratio (1.68). They don’t beat themselves by turning the ball over very often.
• Illinois is middle of the pack nationally in free-throw attempts (#190), but they do an excellent job of converting when they get there, as they are ranked 11th nationally in FT shooting (78.4%).
• Illinois is ranked #352 of 361 teams in fast-break points. They want to crawl up the floor and play half-court offense.

Illini Defensive Notes

• Illinois plays half-court, man-to-man defense 91% of the time. They try to go over guard/guard ball screens, but will “switch” if necessary. They tend to drop coverage in guard/post ball screens. Due to their elite size, they usually only play one-on-one in the post.
• The Illini have run a half-court zone defense 9% of the time this season, but they have run it a ton in the tournament. I think the Illini will run it often, intending to keep UH off the offensive glass. They primarily run a 2-3 zone (especially vs. a baseline out-of-bounds play).
• Illinois doesn’t full-court press unless they absolutely must at the end of the game. It will be a stark difference from the last team the Coogs played.
• The Illini have elite size across the board. They are ranked 29th nationally in blocked shots per game, averaging 4.6. “Big Z” Zvonimir Ivisic averages 2 of those.
• Illinois is often questioned for its defense, but I’m not sure why. They are in the top 40 nationally in field goal percentage defense (41%) and three-point field goal percentage defense (31%).
• The Illini do a good job defending without fouling. They are ranked second nationally in fewest fouls per game, averaging only 13.3. JoJo might have 13 fouls in warmups.
• Illinois can rebound. They’re 7th in rebounding margin (+15.4), 10th in rebounds per game (41 rpg), and 16th in both offensive (13.35) and defensive boards (27.65).
• They don’t take many defensive risks at all and are ranked dead last nationally in steals per game (3.7) and turnovers forced per game (7.88). They just want to force you to take a tough shot and grab the rebound, which they do extraordinarily well.

Illinois Personnel (*Indicates likely starters)

*#23 – Keaton Wagler – 6’6″ – FR – Guard – 18ppg, 5rpg, 4apg.

• Tall/three-level scoring combo-guard. Likely lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft;
• Has 70 more shot attempts than his next closest teammate. He doesn’t get sped up on offense.
• Really tough-shot maker (off the bounce, step back, contested, etc…);
• Outstanding three-point shooter (80-196, 41%). Can shoot from DEEP;
• Nice pull-up jumper in the paint;
• Tough finisher around the rim. Can finish with either hand and while absorbing contact. Ranked #66 nationally with 159 free throws made;
• Does a nice job getting his teammates involved – 149 assists on the season.

*#0 – David Mirkovic – 6’9″ – FR – Forward – (SC Derby- Adriatic League) – 14ppg, 8rpg, 3apg.

• Big “freshman” stretch/point forward; He plays like a college Luka Doncic. Very similar game;
• He does not scream athleticism, but he’s an EXTREMELY hard worker;
• He attacks the glass on both ends, but he is especially a major problem on the offensive glass.
• Really good outside shooter for a 6’9″ forward (54-142, 38%). Almost shoots a set shot;
• Very talented in the paint. Capable of making a hook shot from just in front of the free-throw line. Has a really nice drop-step to score going either way;
• Good passer.

*#13 – Tomislav Ivisic – 7’1″ – JR – Forward – (SC Derby- Adriatic League) – 10ppg, 6rpg.

• LEFTY!
• BIG post player. Sneaky athletic;
• Good low post player. Best going with the hook shot with his left hand over his right shoulder. If he’s going to his right, he’s probably going to drop step and come back to his left hand to score;
• Really good at finding space in the pick-and-roll or popping for the three-pointer;
• More than capable outside shooter at 7’1″ (46-146, 32%);
• Hits the boards hard on both ends of the court.

*#4 – Kylan Boswell – 6’2″ – SR – Guard – (Arizona) – 13ppg, 4rpg, 3apg.

• Played at Arizona when UH beat them in the 2022 Sweet 16. You might recall, UH beat Illinois in the prior game;
• Experienced point guard;
• He plays really slow, then BOOM hits a change of pace to get to the rim;
• A bit of a foul-baiter when he gets in the paint. Loves to head-fake and jump into his defender.
• Doesn’t shoot a great three-point percentage for a guard (35-111, 32%).

*#15 – Jake Davis – 6’6″ – JR – Guard – (Mercer) – 6ppg, 2rpg.

• Tall guard. Three-point shooting specialist. Zero filter in interviews, which is great;
• 129 of his 142 field goal attempts have been from beyond the arc (53-129, 41%);
• Best from the right side, but likes both corners.

#2 – Andrej Stojakovic – 6’7″ – JR – Guard – (Stanford, California) – 14ppg, 5rpg.

• Son of one of the greatest shooters of all-time (Peja Stojakovic);
• Tall/strong/athletic microwave scorer off the bench. Great 6th man;
• Over half his shots are at the rim, and he’s great at using his skills to get there. Very strong finisher;
• Loves to use his strength to back down smaller defenders. If he can’t back them down, he likes to pull up for a little jumper in the paint;
• I thought he was a better outside shooter than he is (19-79, 24%);

#3 – Ben Humrichous – 6’9″ – GR – Forward – (Huntington-IN, Evansville) – 6ppg, 4rpg.

• Big stretch-forward off the bench. Three-point specialist;
• 152 of his 176 field goal attempts have been from beyond the arc (55-152, 36%);
• He doesn’t need much room to get his shot off and can make it from DEEP.

#44 – Zvonimir Ivisic – 7’2″ – JR – Center – (Kentucky, Arkansas) – 7ppg, 5rpg, 2bpg.

• Big body post player;
• Excellent shot blocker; Ranked #17 nationally with 71 blocks;
• Really good footwork in the paint;
• Good at finding open space around the rim. They like to look for him on the lob.
• Can pick-and-roll to the rim or pick-and-pop to shoot the three;
• More than capable, but not a great three-point shooter (28-97, 29%);

Illini Cheat Sheet

My Game Plan vs Illinois

1. REBOUND. Illinois is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. They do it on both ends of the court, but it will be critical to keep them off the offensive glass and limit them to one scoring opportunity. The Coogs will need to rebound as a unit.
2. Play from ahead. The Coogs are so much better when they get the first punch. Illinois does not turn the ball over, so the Coogs need to score first and get a few stops to play from ahead. It will be difficult to get steals or easy baskets.
3. Get to the paint. Most teams avoid driving against the elite Illinois size in the paint, but I’d look to get the guard/post pick-and-roll game going and let Kingston attack their drop coverage.
4. Lock down the three-point line. Illinois is one of the better three-point shooting teams that Houston has seen. UH should look to run them off the three-point line and force them to take difficult two-point jumpers off the bounce.
5. Keep Wagler off the free-throw line. He is a handful! He has taken 75 more free throws than his next closest teammate. The Coogs need to force him to make difficult shots off the bounce. You don’t want him to get his points with the clock stopped.

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