Houston faces #18 Oklahoma State in a ranked-team battle at TDECU this weekend. Here’s a look at the keys on both sides of the ball to keep the Cougar season rolling.
UH Defense
- Get pressure on QB Drew Mestemaker
Mestemaker has earned scouts’ attention, and for good reason. He had a productive season as a first-time starter for North Texas last year and has picked up where he left off in his new home. In the last 3 games, he is 59/77 (76.6%) for 1,021 yards and 10 touchdowns with only one interception.
Most quarterbacks see a dip in production when pressured, but Mestemaker’s completion percentage drops sharply. When he’s kept clean, he hits on 75.2 percent of his passes, but his completion percentage drops to 46.9 percent when he is pressured. To compare, Conner Weigman goes from 69.2 percent when kept clean to 56.3 percent under pressure.
Mestemaker is willing to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball, almost to a fault. If his arm is free, he will get rid of it with defenders in his face or even hanging on to him. And he trusts his arm strength to fit in crowded areas. He’ll sometimes give defenders the chance to make a play. Five of his 55 incompletions have been intercepted.
The opportunity to get to Mestemaker should be there: Defenses have pressured him 14 or more times in three of their five games. A week ago, UCF pressured him 14 times (the Knights pressured Weigman 4 times). The Houston defense has stepped up recently, and this will be another chance to make an impact.
2. Coogs must tackle Caleb Hawkins
Hawkins has proven slippery throughout his career. This season, he has forced 26 missed tackles per PFF. And 370 of his 524 rushing yards are after contact. It will be crucial for the first man to get him to the ground.
Neutralizing the run game and making OSU one-dimensional is vital. It prevents the Cowboys from controlling the clock and wearing the defense down as the game goes on. A solid run game can also make the play-action pass more effective, where Mestemaker is dangerous: He is 47/60 (78.3%) for 765 yards and nine touchdowns. Keeping Oklahoma State off schedule and in more obvious passing situations will be key for the defense.
3. Keep eyes on Wyatt Young
Receiver Wyatt Young is a versatile player who can line up anywhere on the field for Oklahoma State. Though he has yet to take a snap at quarterback, he did play the position in high school. He leads the team in receiving yards with 462 and is second in targets.
He makes the most of his opportunities, averaging 4.28 yards per route run. Yards per route is an efficiency metric for how much receivers produce while on the field. For reference, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Oregon State’s Jesse Legree average 5.42 and 4.76, respectively. Patrick Overmyer is UH’s best, at 2.54 Y/RR. So Young is producing similarly to some of the nation’s best.
UH Offense
- Keep Jaleel Johnson out of the backfield
Johnson has been Oklahoma State’s most productive pass rusher. He has 16 pressures and two sacks this season. Houston has done a good job of keeping Weigman clean, and I expect they continue to do so. But if there is a player to be concerned with on the defensive front, it is Johnson.
2. Attack Oklahoma State on the outside
At this point in the season, teams have established an identity and are looking to execute what they do best. I don’t expect the Coogs to do anything drastically different than they have so far. But UCF seemed to succeed early against Oklahoma State with quarterback runs and stretching the field outside.
They also seemed able to move the ball on the outside in the pass game. Quick screens and forcing the Oklahoma State defensive backs to fight off blocks. Amare Thomas could get big-play opportunities if he can get the ball early and create in space.
3. Stay the course
I’ve not written much about the Houston offense this season. Honestly, I don’t have much to say beyond how effective they’ve been. And I think there’s not much reason for them to start reinventing the wheel at this point.
Game planning is a happy medium of executing what you do best and isolating weaknesses to exploit against your specific opponent. Continuing to highlight Patrick Overmyer’s ability over the middle will be important, as well as getting Amare Thomas back in the fold.
And ultimately, Houston’s ground game will be key. Running the ball effectively, as they have all year, will keep drives moving and the Oklahoma State offense on the sideline.
