Big Monday showdown: Scouting Iowa State

Big 12-leading Houston (23-2, 11-1 Big 12) is in Ames for a BIG MONDAY showdown with Iowa State (22-3, 9-3) at Hilton Coliseum Monday night. “Hilton Magic” was in full effect two years ago when Milan Momcilovic buried that fade-away jumper to take the lead for good with 31 seconds left. Houston has won games in 15 arenas in the conference and seeks to add the final one Monday night.

The Cyclones might have the best trio in the Big 12 with Momcilovic, Tamin Lipsey, and Joshua Jefferson. Lipsey was my “Head of the Snake” two years ago, and Momcilovic was last year. Now it’s Jefferson’s turn. He has been the most complete player I’ve seen in the Big 12 this season, taking his game to another level.

Iowa State is undefeated (14-0) at home this year. The Clones had won five in a row before losing in Fort Worth last Tuesday, but bounced back with a blowout win at home over Kansas. UH needs the win to keep control of first place in the league. Both programs are on short rest, are built very similarly, and depend on defense and toughness. It should be a Big 12, Big Monday rock-fight. This game is likely to come down to free throws and hustle plays down the stretch.

Iowa State Offensive Notes

• Momcilovic is shooting over 50% from beyond the arc (97/188, 52%). Iowa State 7th nationally beyond the arc, shooting 40% as a team!
• The Cyclones have a TON of talent on offense. The trio of Jefferson, Momcilovic, and Lipsey can each score 20 points. The Clones are ranked 4th in the Big 12 in scoring (84.2 ppg).
• The Cyclones have elite guard play and are excellent at sharing the ball. The Clones do not tend to settle for bad shots. Their guards usually find the open man for a great shot. Iowa State is ranked first in the Big 12 with 18.2 assists per game.
• As mentioned above, the Clones take GREAT/open shots as ISU is ranked #13 in the nation and #2 in the Big 12 in field goal percentage at 51%. The Coogs will need to play elite defense and force them to take bad shots.
• They do a nice job of limiting turnovers. ISU is ranked 2nd in the Big 12 in turnover margin. Houston is the only Big 12 team that takes better care of the ball.
• Iowa State does not get a ton of scoring from its bench, #268 nationally in bench points per game with 19. Their starters are so elite at scoring that they are still one of the best teams in the nation in scoring offense.
• ISU doesn’t do a great job of getting to the free-throw line (ranked #164 nationally), but it also really struggles once it gets there. The Clones are ranked #334 out of 361 teams in free-throw percentage at 67%.

Cyclones Defensive Notes

• Iowa State has played man-to-man defense over 99% of the time this season. I can’t recall if they did last year, but they now monster (double-team) in the post. The Clones try to go over screens, but will switch if they can’t.
• Iowa State has only run 12 possessions of zone defense this season and hasn’t in a while. When they do, it’s usually a 1-3-1 zone set.
• The Clones full-court press 5% of the time. When they press, it is usually a full-court, man-to-man. ISU rarely runs it to create turnovers, but rather to take some time off the shot clock.
• ISU has one of the best scoring defenses in the nation, giving up only 64.5 points per game.
• The Cyclones are always one of the best teams in the nation at getting steals. The duo of Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure creates a ton of havoc. Iowa State is ranked first in the Big 12 with 9 steals per game.
• ISU doesn’t block many shots in the paint. The Clones are ranked #234 in the nation with only three blocks per game.

Iowa State Personnel (*Indicates likely starters)

*#5 – Joshua Jefferson – 6’9″ – SR – Forward – (St. Mary’s) – 17ppg, 8rpg, 5apg, 1bpg, 1spg.

• Head of the Snake;
• Tall/athletic/three-level scoring, point-forward;
• Possibly the upcoming Big 12 player of the year. He’s the best player I’ve scouted this year;
• I believe he’s leaned down some from last year. Appears more agile when driving to the basket;
• Has become great at putting the ball on the floor at the three-point line and getting all the way to the rim;
• Still a monster in the post and can score with a variety of moves with either hand. Loves the short hook-shot with his right hand over his left shoulder;
• Good three-point shooter (28-71, 39%);
• Outstanding rebounder on both ends; Excellent at finding open guys when he’s double-teamed;
• Has had TWO triple-doubles this season (vs West Virginia and UCF).

*#3 – Tamin Lipsey – 6’1″ – SR – Guard – 13ppg, 4rpg, 5apg, 2spg.

• Smaller/outstanding point guard;
• One of the best defenders in college basketball. He is ranked #1 in the Big 12 and 19th nationally in steals per game;
• Does a nice job finishing in the paint, despite his size. Nice floater;
• Has struggled a bit from outside this season (22-79, 28%);
• Excellent at finding open shooters. He is ranked #1 in the Big 12 and #6 nationally in assist/turnover ratio at 4.03.

*#22 – Milan Momcilovic – 6’8″ – JR – Forward – 18ppg, 3rpg.

• Tall and deadly shooter from anywhere. Three-level scorer;
• You have to guard him beginning at shoot-around. One of the best three-point shooters on the planet, and leads the nation.
• Outstanding fade-away jumper in the mid-post. He’s got the Dirk move perfected;
• Can get to the rim, but would prefer to take a jumper.

*#23 – Blake Buchanan – 6’10” – JR – Forward – (Virginia) – 8ppg, 6rpg.

• Really tall/athletic/physical big man;
• A real problem on the offensive glass. Critical to put a body on him. Has 71 offensive rebounds, which is 23 more than his next closest teammate. After watching more closely, he is super physical. He will push/pull and do whatever it takes to get the offensive rebound. You must match his physicalness;
• Has nice touch on his shots inside and right around the paint;
• He knows his role. He has zero three-point attempts. He hangs around the rim and capitalizes on missed shots and duck-ins for dunks.

*#27 – Killyan Toure – 6’3″ – FR – Guard – 10ppg, 4rpg, 2apg, 2spg.

• Three-level scoring guard. The future superstar of this team;
• Extremely long wing-span for a 6’3″ guard. Uses it well when defending to bother ball handlers and deflect passes;
• Average three-point shooter so far (19-59: 32%);
• Explosive driver to the rim with either hand.

#21 – Dominykas Pleta – 6’11” – FR – Forward – 4ppg, 2rpg.

• Extremely tall forward off the bench;
• Solid finisher around the basket;
• Does a nice job as a roller in the pick and roll;
• Not an outside shooting threat.

#0 – Nate Heise – 6’5″ – SR – Guard – (Northern Iowa) – 5ppg, 4rpg.

• Experienced guard off the bench;
• Does a nice job of cutting to the basket without the ball.
• Has struggled shooting from outside this year (18-63, 29%). Has a quick release.

#1 – Jamarion Batemon – 6’3″ – FR – Guard – 6ppg, 1rpg.

• Really good shooter off the bench;
• Outstanding three-point shooter (35-88: 40%); Can shoot from DEEP; EXTREMELY DEEP!!!;
• Athletic driver off the bounce.

What I’ll Be Watching…

1. Turnovers: Neither team turns the ball over at a high clip. Iowa State depends on turnovers to win its games. It will be crucial for the Coogs to protect the ball and not allow “live ball turnovers”.
2. Defensive matchups: Iowa State creates some matchup problems for Houston. They have 5 starters that can each be a problem. I will be very intrigued to see what the Houston coaching staff decides to do defensively.
3. One-and-done on the glass: Iowa State has some guys that crash the offensive glass with a vengeance. Keeping Jojo Tugler on the court will be critical for the Coogs. They need the duo of him and Chris Cenac Jr. to hold the Clones to only one shot.
4. Toughest team wins: I believe these teams are almost identical. I could see the game coming down to a toughness play. Maybe a loose ball, offensive foul taken, jump ball, etc, could be the deciding factor for a tough road victory.