As much as I enjoyed scouting Troy, the opposite could be said about Toledo. The Rockets bring “MAC-Tion” and a 6-4 record to the Fertitta Center for a Wednesday night matchup against the Houston Cougars. Toledo lost the game I watched Saturday to Youngstown State 93-87. They also lost to Troy 84-74 earlier in the year, whom the Coogs beat 62-42 last week.

The Rockets are a very well-coached team led by Tod Kowalczyk, but he has a very young squad. Ten of their fourteen players are either freshmen or sophomores. They have some offensive talent but struggle defensively. The Rockets are led by point guard Sonny Wilson, my “Head of the Snake” for this game. He is listed at 6’1″, and I would venture to say he is closer to 5’9″-5’10” (I could be dead wrong). Wilson uses his size and speed to his advantage by finding ways to get in the paint to score or draw a foul. He leads the Rockets in points and assists.

Houston is not a good match-up for Toledo. Although they have some offensive fire-power, the Cougars will likely shut down at least two of the four of their double-digit scorers and keep everyone else under control.

This should be a breakout game for several UH players because of Toledo’s inability to keep guys out of the paint. This could be an ideal game for all of the Coog guards, but I would look for Milos, Mercy, Mylik, and Terrance to take advantage of getting in the paint to make a play.

Coogs win this one BIG.

Toledo Offense

• The Coogs must keep the Rockets out of the paint. Sonny Wilson and Seth Hubbard lead the way getting downhill to attack the paint.
• Toledo has four double-digit scorers on the season. Houston will need to identify whoever may get hot for them and look to take them away.
• The Rockets get to the free-throw line well but shoot 69% as a team from the FT line. Wilson gets to the line a ton but only shoots 63% this season.
• UH can’t allow Sam Lewis to get open looks from three. He is 14/28 (50%) on the season from beyond the arc.

Rocket Defense

• Toledo primarily plays HC M2M defense. They struggle against pick-and-roll action.
• The Rockets may try a 2-1-2 FC Zone Trap. Like Troy, they will need to score or get a dead ball at that end of the court. I would look for it after a timeout or a made free throw.
• They struggle to guard the post. Look to feed the big men early and often.
• The Cougar guards should look to attack gaps in their defense. Houston’s guards should be able to get paint touches to score or kick out for the three.
• When the ball touches the post, the guys on the other side of the floor should cut to the basket. Their weak-side defense is not great.

Toledo Personnel

(* Indicates Probable Starters)

*#3 – Sonny Wilson – 6’1″ (Not so sure about 6’1″) – SO – Guard – 16ppg, 4rpg, 4apg.

• Small/scoring point-guard;
• Three-level scorer;
• Leads the team in points and assists;
• Crafty scorer in the paint; Really good at drawing fouls.

*#11 – Sam Lewis – 6’6″ – SO – Guard – 14ppg, 5rpg.

• Tall shooting guard; I like his game. He’s very patient and takes good shots;
• Three-level scorer;
• Solid three-point shooter;
• Capable of getting to the rim.

*#7 – Isaiah Adams – 6’7″ – GR – Guard – (UCF/Buffalo) – 11ppg, 4rpg.

• LEFTY; He is ALL left hand…force him right!;
• Big-body guard;
• Solid mid-range shooter;
• Can get to the rim driving left;
• Capable three-point shooter.

*#1 – Javan Simmons – 6’7″ – SO – Forward – 12ppg, 5rpg.

• LEFTY;
• Big body forward;
• Likes to play on the left block;
• Not a great shooter outside of the paint.

*#32 – Jaylan Ouwinga – 6’9″ – FR – Forward – 6ppg, 3rpg.

• Long post player;
• Capable shot-blocker around the rim;
• Best when scoring on offensive rebound put-back opportunities.

#12 – Seth Hubbard – 6’4″ – JR – Guard – (Western Michigan) – 9ppg, 3rpg.

• Athletic scoring guard;
• Looks to bring an offensive spark off the bench;
• Solid mid-range shooter; LOVES the pull-up jumper from the FT line/elbows;
• Good at getting to the rim.

#13 – André Lorentsson – 6’9″ – SR – Forward – (St Louis) – 5ppg, 3rpg.

• Tall stretch-forward;
• Solid pick-and-pop, three-point shooter; Capable of making the deep three;
• Prefers to play outside on offense.

#2 – Bryce Ford – 6’3″ – SO – Guard – 5ppg, 2rpg.

• LEFTY;
• Combo guard;
• Solid outside-shooter.

#24 – Grgur Brcic – 6’10” – SO – Forward – 3ppg, 2rpg.

• Underwhelming big-man; Plays too stiff;
• Strangest name I’ve ever scouted; It is not misspelled above (shrugs);
• He plays hard, but he’s not very skilled;
• Capable of scoring around the rim.

Keys to Victory

1. Keep their guards out of the paint. The paint is where their guards want to get to. The goal should be to force them into making tough outside shots and long two-point attempts off the dribble (no fouls).
2. Feed the post. The Rockets lack athleticism inside. This may be the game that J’Wan starts scoring. The Coogs need him to average over 10 ppg to open up more opportunities for the guards and smaller forwards.
3. Attack the paint. This should be a great opportunity for the guards like Milos, Mercy, Emanuel, and LJ to attack the paint looking to score or to kick out to open shooters. Toledo struggles with help-side defense, so I would look for some “ally-oop” opportunities when the weak-side defense is ball-watching.
4. Crush them on the offensive glass. They lack athleticism inside. The big men need to attack the glass on the offensive end like they did against Troy and take advantage of them.
5. Get the bench guys extra playing time. The Facebook/message board crowd is begging to see more Mercy. There are several guys on Toledo that he can guard. This game would be great for guys like him, Cedric, Mylik, Kordel, and others to build their confidence. We learned last year that you could need those guys down the long stretch of the season. This would be a great game to get them some solid playing time with the starters and the first couple of guys off the bench.