Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger leads his 21-5 (11-4) Cyclones to the Fertitta Center for a Saturday matinee against the Houston Cougars 22-4 (14-1). This is one that both fanbases have had circled all season. The Coogs and Cyclones have become “frienemies” on social media, but when ESPN College Game Day is in town, it means a street fight is on the way.

Iowa State is as talented as ever, returning key players Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, and Curtis Jones (Friday night, Iowa State announced that Gilbert (leg injury) and Jones (illness) will miss Saturday’s game). They added some front-court help with Joshua Jefferson, Dishon Jackson, and Brandton Chatfield in the offseason. All three are BIG bodies that could give the Coogs some issues on the glass. They are very…and I mean very talented 1-6, then fall off a bit. Any of their top six guys could lead them in scoring.

I originally went with sixth man Curtis Jones, who is averaging 17 ppg, as my “head of the snake” for this one. The moment he enters the game, he is looking to score. He is pretty good from beyond the arc but can shoot the pull-up jumper and get to the rim.

With him sidelined for the game, I’ll go with Milan Momcilovic to take his place. “Mommy,” as ISU fans call him, is a mismatch nightmare. He is tall enough to shoot over smaller guards and is a legit three-level scorer. When he was out a few weeks ago, the Cyclones struggled, but he has given them life since his return. He hit the game-winner against UH at Hilton last year with his Dirk Nowitzki fade-away on the baseline.

Iowa State gave the Cougar defense issues last year. They move the ball quickly to avoid the BLITZ and MONSTER double-teams. None of this year’s big men have seen UH MONSTER yet, so it may give them problems. Both teams now know each other well, and it could come down to making coaching adjustments to decide a winner. I’ll take the Coogs at home, but even without their top two leading scorers, it will be an all-out battle!

Iowa State National Rankings

• Net – #8; Houston Ranked #3
• Kenpom – #9; Houston Ranked #3
• AP Poll – #8; Houston Ranked #5
• Coaches Poll – #8; Houston Ranked #5

Iowa State Offensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#11 – Scoring Margin: +14

#14 – Free Throws Made Per Game: 17.5

#21 – Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 23.4

#29 – Scoring Offense: 81.3

#32 – Field Goal Percentage: 48.26%

Cyclones Defensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#15 – Steals Per Game: 9.4

#18 – Turnover Margin: 3.8

#19 – Turnovers Forced Per Game: 15.31

#40 – Rebound Margin: +5

Iowa State Offense Notes

• The Cyclones don’t shoot it exceptionally well from outside, but they have several guys who can get hot. I’d keep an eye on Momcilovic and Lipsey from beyond the arc.
• ISU has several guys that are three-level scorers. The Coogs will need to adjust accordingly if someone is heating up.
• The Clones do a great job driving to draw fouls. Houston will need to play smart and not reach on their drives.
• The Iowa State big men look to crash the glass. They all have massive bodies, and it will be important for UH to rebound as a unit in this one.

Cyclones Defense Notes

• Iowa State is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are very similar to Houston. The main difference is they usually hedge screens rather than BLITZ them.
• Primarily play HC M2M defense. Will occasionally pick up full-court.
• Sometimes Dishon Jackson gets lost on pick and rolls. I’d go at him early with J’Wan or JoJo and see how he does.

Iowa State Personnel Report

*#3 – Tamin Lipsey – 6’1″ – JR – Guard – 11ppg, 3rpg, 3apg, 2spg.

• Small/tough point guard;
• Super pesky defender;
• Good three-point shooter; 29/87 (33%);
• Will likely attempt the “Mark Sears Flop,” where he drives into the defender’s chest and throws his head back like he’s been shot. If I were on the staff, I would beg the refs not to fall for it.
• Ranked Top 50 in Nation: #26 – Steals Per Game: 2.12; #28 – Steals: 55;

*#22 – Milan Momcilovic – 6’8″ – SO – Forward – 10ppg, 3rpg, 43% 3pt%.

• Head of the Snake
• Lengthy scoring-forward;
• Three-level scorer;
• Outstanding three-point shooter – 40/93 (43%);
• Excellent mid-range shooter. Very nice Dirk Nowitzki fade-away (which was the kill shot against UH in Ames last year).

*#2 – Joshua Jefferson – 6’9″ – JR – Forward – (St. Mary’s) – 13ppg, 8rpg.

• Big/athletic/versatile forward;
• Double-Double machine;
• Very good at catching around the free throw line and driving to the rim;
• Pretty good with both hands in the paint;
• Capable outside shooter – 14/44 (32%);
• Ranked Top 50 in Nation in double-doubles – 9.

*#0 – Nate Heise – 6’5″ – RS SR – Guard – (Northern Iowa) – 4ppg, 3rpg.

• Stocky guard;
• Capable outside shooter, but hasn’t been great – 12/41 (29%).

*#1 – Dishon Jackson – 6’11” – RS SR – Center – (Washington State/ Charlotte) – 9ppg, 5rpg, 1bpg.

• Big body post-player;
• Can finish with either hand in the post;
• Not an outside shooting threat.

#33 – Brandton Chatfield – 6’10” – RS SR – Forward – 4ppg, 3rpg.

• BIG body forward;
• Good pick and roll guy in transition offense;
• Aggressive offensive rebounder;
• Not an outside threat.

#15 – Nojus Indrusaitis – 6’5″ – FR – Guard – 2ppg, 0.4rpg.

• Doubt he plays vs Houston;
• Poor three-point shooter – 2/14 (14%).

#4 – Demarion Watson – 6’7″ – JR – Guard – 2ppg, 3rpg.

• Doesn’t play as much this year with the incoming transfers;
• Transfer portal guy next year?

#10 – Keshon Gilbert – 6’4″ – SR – Guard – (UNLV) – 14ppg, 4rpg, 4.5 apg, 3 TOpg.

• Has been ruled out for the game.
• Athletic scoring/play-making guard;
• Leads the team in assists and turnovers;
• Best when getting in the paint to score;
• Good mid-range shooter;
• Solid outside shooter – 22/67 (33%).

#5 – Curtis Jones – 6’4″ – SR – Guard – (Buffalo) – 17ppg, 5rpg, 2apg.

• Has been ruled out for the game.
• Ultimate 6th man who brings immediate offensive energy;
• 100 more shot attempts than the next guy on their team, and he doesn’t even start (152/353);
• Solid three-point shooter; 67/182 (37%). Can shoot it from DEEP;
• Best free-throw shooter on the team (82%);
• One of the best “tough shot” makers I have seen in a while.

Keys to Victory

1. Toughest team wins. The two teams had some battles in last year’s regular season, and this one will be no different. Houston will need to be the toughest team on their home court to get a win. The team that takes better care of the ball, keeps the glass clean, and makes the most hustle plays will likely win it.
2. Keep their big men off the glass. The Iowa State big men are large. Jackson and Chatfield are not overly athletic but know how to use their bodies on the boards and take up a lot of room. The Cougar bigs will have to protect the glass without fouling.
3. Defensive adjustments. Iowa State toasted the Houston BLITZ last year. If they are getting wide-open shots, I’d look for the coaching staff to adjust accordingly.
4. Take care of the basketball. The Cyclones are one of the best teams in the nation at causing chaos with their defense. They deflect a ton of passes, which leads to steals. The Coogs will need an “A+” game in taking care of the ball and not allowing live turnovers, which would lead to easy baskets for ISU.
5. Crowd noise. The Coogs need the crowd to be LOUD in this one. With ESPN College Game Day in town and the massive matchup, this needs to be the biggest and loudest crowd of the year. The students need to be wild and make it impossible for the Clones to hear “Coach Otz” on the sideline!