INDIANAPOLIS – Tonight at Lucas Oil Stadium, the fourth-seeded Purdue Boilermakers (24-11) face the top seed in the Midwest, the 32-4 Houston Cougars. The Boilermakers are led by a top 10-15 coach in the nation, Matt Painter (as we discussed on Talkin’ Bout them Cougars Wednesday night).

Naismith Player of the Year candidate Braden Smith is very much my Head of the Snake for this one. His excellent ball handling and outside shooting (especially when drifting to his left) prove he is one of the best point guards in the nation. He is sneaky athletic, but crafty and gets the ball where it needs to go. He is second nationally in assists per game (8.5).

His first look is at big man Trey Kaufman-Renn. TKR (as Purdue fans call him) is not extremely athletic, like some of the post players UH has faced recently, but he is smart with the ball and can typically get what he wants in the paint. Often, he will look to find sharp-shooter Fletcher Loyer, because I expect to see a lot of MONSTER on TKR in the post. The Cougars must get a hand in Loyer’s face and force him to put the ball on the floor. He rarely misses open looks when his feet are set.

Purdue is a damn good team. They played for a national championship one year ago and brought back several of their key players. They depend on the three guys mentioned above for most of their scoring. It could feel like a road game for Houston, but there has not been a better road team in the nation than the Coogs.

Purdue Offense Notes

• Houston must be careful running BLITZ vs their pick and roll. Smith is an elite passer that can get it through the double-team to Kaufman-Renn, who will look to attack the basket or pass out to an open knock-down shooter like Loyer.
• They are an excellent transition offense. Houston must hustle back on defense and communicate at a high level.
• Purdue has several guys who are elite shooters when they have their feet set. I would try to run them off the three-point line.
• Smith likes to shoot the three drifting to his left. UH should look to push him right.

Boilermaker Defense Notes

• The Boilermakers primarily play HC M2M defense.
• Purdue struggles guarding the post, and I expect the big men will get early looks.
• They like to run drop coverage. That’s the perfect spot for Milos to get in the paint to score or hit J’Wan around the elbows and let him go to work from there.

Purdue Personnel Report

*#3 – Braden Smith – 6’0″ – JR – Guard – 16ppg, 5rpg, 8.5apg.

• National Player of the Year Candidate. Head of the Snake;
• Smaller “do it all” point guard. Floor leader;
• Really good passer: 8.5apg;
• Solid outside shooter – 82/213 (39%). Likes to shoot the three drifting to his left and loves the left slot. UH needs to close out hard when he is drifting to his left;
• Crafty in the paint to score or find an open shooter;
• Excellent at changing the height and speed of his dribble;
• Will flop in a heartbeat! Have to be smart when he’s guarding you.

*#4 – Trey Kaufman-Renn – 6’9″ – JR – Forward – 20ppg, 7rpg.

• Big-bodied forward;
• Good at catching at the free-throw line and attacking the basket;
• Excellent in the post, going over his left shoulder. He’s patient and works to get it back over his left shoulder;
• Nice little mid-range jumper in the paint;
• Really aggressive on the glass;
• Capable, but rarely shoots the three – 3/7 (43%);
• Struggles at times vs double-teams. MONSTER could give him fits;
• Not a great free-throw shooter, but gets to the line often – 132/205 (64%).

*#2 – Fletcher Loyer – 6’5″ – JR – Guard – 14ppg, 2rpg.

• ELITE shooting guard;
• Knock-down three-point shooter – 73/162 (45%);
• Half of his shot attempts are threes, but he is capable of scoring at all three levels;
• Excellent free-throw shooter – 110/129 (85%).

*#0 – C.J. Cox – 6’3″ – FR – Guard – 6ppg, 3rpg.

• Athletic/three-level scoring guard;
• Really good outside shooter – 32/80 (40%);
• Solid at scoring in the paint;
• Athletic perimeter defender.

#1 – Caleb Furst – 6’10” – SR – Forward – 4ppg, 4rpg.

• Long forward;
• Loves to rim run. UH has to find him in transition;
• Not overly offensively talented, but pretty good around the basket;
• Plays hard and is a decent rebounder.

#5 – Myles Colvin – 6’5″ – SO – Guard – 5ppg, 3rpg.

• Tall/athletic back-up guard;
• Decent three-point shooter – 125 of his 178 shot attempts have been 3pt. He’s 40/125 (32%);
• Capable of getting to the rim.

#23 – Camden Heide – 6’7″ – SO – Forward – 5ppg, 4rpg.

• Lengthy forward off the bench;
• Solid three-point shooter – 28/73 (38%).

#24 – Gicarri Harris – 6’3″ – FR – Guard – 4ppg, 2rpg.

• Athletic/streaky back-up guard;
• Decent outside shooter – 22/71 (31%). Watch out for the leg kick-out;
• Tough defender;
• Doesn’t get there often, but is an elite free-throw shooter – 25/27 (93%).

#34 – Raleigh Burgess – 6’11” – FR – Forward – 2ppg, 1rpg.

• BIG body forward;
• Pretty solid three-point shooter – 6/15 (40%).

Keys to Victory

1. Keep the glass clean on both ends. The Coogs must limit Purdue to one shot. They are huge in the front court, but not really athletic. Houston will need to own the defensive glass and get extra opportunities for dagger threes on the offensive end.
2. Limit their transition offense. Smith is elite in transition offense. He can get downhill, find the rim-runner, or kick ahead to open shooters. The Coogs will need to communicate and get back on defense.
3. Nothing easy for TKR in the post. He is elite when going over his left shoulder. He is still capable when going the other direction, but at a lower rate. The Houston bigs must understand his strengths and not allow him to capitalize on them.
4. Force Loyer to put it on the floor. He is outstanding in the catch-and-shoot, especially when his feet are set. He is talented enough to score off the bounce, but I’d prefer to see him make tough, contested two-point shots rather than open threes.
5. Game of Runs. Basketball is a GAME OF RUNS. Houston will need someone to make a run-killing shot when Purdue goes on a run and their semi-home crowd gets rowdy. Houston has so many guys capable of making that shot: Milos, LJ, Emanuel, and J’Wan. At some point Friday night, one of them will need to do it again.