The 26-4 (18-1) third-ranked Houston Cougars are in Waco for a late night street fight against the 18-12 (10-9) Baylor Bears. Baylor is likely in the NCAA Tournament, but a win on senior night locks it down. They will celebrate the final game for their seniors Norchad Omier, Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, and Jalen Celestine.

I expect the Bears to full-court press and look to run in transition for the entire game. They played very slow against Houston in the Fertitta Center, as their depth is not good, but they did have some success when they pressed late. Baylor has nothing to lose in this one and has to do whatever it takes to win this game. They will have a few days off following the game, so fatigue shouldn’t be an issue. Omier will again be the “head of the snake.” He is a double-double machine, but was held to 5 rebounds in Houston.

The Coogs are not playing for seeding, but do have some history to play for. Kelvin Sampson’s team attempts to complete a perfect 10-0 season on the road, which would be the school’s first perfect road record since going 6-0 in 1967-68. They could also set a record for most Big 12 wins in the history of the conference. In addition, the Coogs would love to send LJ Cryer out with a win against his former team.

Baylor National Rankings

• Net – #31; Houston Ranked #3
• Kenpom – #30; Houston Ranked #3
• AP Poll – #NR; Houston Ranked #3
• Coaches Poll – #NR; Houston Ranked #3

Baylor Offensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#46 – Rebounds (Offensive) Per Game: 12.67

Bears Defensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

Still none…

Baylor Offense Notes

• The Bears like to push the ball in offensive transition. They can do so when Omier rebounds because he is known to take a few power dribbles after rebounding and push the ball ahead to a guard on the move. Most bigs UH has played against must wait for a point guard to get the ball up the court. But not Omier.
• Baylor uses a lot of screens off the ball to create pass and dribble-drive opportunities to kick out to open shooters in the corners.
• They have good inbounds plays. I would continue to guard the inbound passer with JoJo, but I have him shade them to throw the ball to the corner for a MONSTER trap or to the top of the key. I would not allow them to get any passes into someone cutting to the rim.

Bears Defense Notes

• The Bears prefer running a zone defense. Their 1-3-1 zone defense is the most common, but they will sometimes run a 1-2-2 or matchup zone defense. They like to disguise it as a M2M defense but don’t follow offensive players across the court. Houston torched their 1-3-1 last game.
• Baylor’s transition defense is sometimes lacking. I would love to see the Coogs hit their lanes and look to get some easy/early looks in the shot clock.
• Here and there, they will play a full-court, M2M defense. Roach will look to put HIGH pressure on Milos to try to make someone else bring the ball up the court. Occasionally, they will try a run-and-jump to trap the Coogs at the half-court line and use it as a third defender. They had some success pressing UH at Fertitta Center. I’d expect to see a lot more Saturday.

Baylor Personnel Report

*#15 – Norchad Omier – 6’7″ – 5th SR – Forward – (Arkansas State/ Miami) – 16ppg, 11rpg, 2apg, 1bpg, 1spg.

• Undersized but a double-double machine post player;
• Super physical and can shoot over either shoulder;
• Can finish with either hand in the paint;
• Can catch in the mid-range and drive to the basket;
• Capable three-point shooter if unguarded – 18/59 (31%); Was 1/1 against UH;
• Very similar size and playing style to J’Wan Roberts.

*#7 – VJ Edgecombe – 6’5″ – FR – Guard – 15ppg, 5rpg, 3apg, 2spg.

• Super athletic phenomenal freshman. Three-level scorer;
• Likely NBA lottery pick in the 2025 draft;
• EXPLOSIVE when getting downhill to the basket;
• Best when catching on the move and pulling up mid-range/in the lane;
• Solid three-point shooter – 46/128 (36%).
• Great at jumping the passing lane for a steal and highlight dunk.

*#3 – Jeremy Roach – 6’2″ – 5th SR – Guard – (Duke) – 11ppg, 3apg, 2rpg.

• Solid guard;
• Good in transition offense;
• Best when getting to the paint to score or kick out to a shooter;
• Solid three-point shooter – 38/106 (36%).

*#2 – Jayden Nunn – 6’4″ – SR – Guard – (VCU) – 9ppg, 3rpg.

• His three-point shot is much improved this year – 56/135 (42%);
• Really good at attacking the basket.

*#32 – Jalen Celestine – 6’7″ – GR – Guard – (California) – 8ppg, 3rpg.

• LEFTY;
• Getting better with more time on the court;
• Not bad at getting to the rim to finish with his left hand;
• Good three-point shooter; 46/125 (37%).

#1 – Robert Wright III – 6’1″ – FR – Guard – 12ppg, 5apg, 2rpg, 1spg.

• Ultra-talented freshman point guard;
• Has been getting comparisons to a young Chris Paul. Crazy good passer;
• Good at finishing at the rim at 6’1″. So freaking crafty in the paint;
• Solid three-point shooter; 28/79 (35%).

#13 – Langston Love – 6’5″ – RS JR – Guard – 9ppg, 3rpg.

• Rumored to be headed to the transfer portal following the season;
• Has been hurt for years, but should be good to go Saturday;
• Excellent three-point shooter (but his % hasn’t reflected it yet this season) – 21/69 (30%); Was 4/5 against UH in Houston;
• Much improved at driving to the basket.

#5 – Jason Asemota – 6’8″ – FR – Forward – 2ppg, 2rpg.

• Talented freshman forward;
• Not a great shooter yet – 31% from the floor and 22% from 3pt.

Keys to Victory

1. Keep Omier off the glass. He’s a monster. It doesn’t matter who he’s playing against…he usually gets a double-double. The Coogs held him to only five rebounds in Houston. Since February 1, he’s averaged 12 RPG – when he’s not playing Houston.
2. Identify who is hot for them quickly. The Coogs have struggled a bit lately identifying who is hot for the other team quickly enough, and it has hurt them in spurts. Baylor has a ton of talent that can heat up quickly. It will be crucial to get the ball out of their hands.
3. Transition offense/defense. Both will be important for Houston. I’d love to see Milos push the ball ahead and try to create some easy offense. Baylor will be looking to do the same so they don’t have to deal with Houston’s tough half-court defense.
4. Patient against their zone. When playing a team that zones, they beg you to take a quick side-to-side passed shot. Houston is at their best when the ball touches the paint. Like WAY BETTER. They have to figure out how to get it in that area, then look to score inside or kick out for an inside/out three.
5. Toughest team wins. Nothing more needs to be said here. Last regular season game. In-state rival. Two great coaches. Tons of talent. Who wants it more? As a former coach, our goal was always to RUIN our senior night.

Following the game