Houston will face 16-seed Colorado in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament on Thursday. The Buffs pulled an upset Wednesday over West Virginia.

Colorado has improved since Houston visited Boulder in early February. A week later, they beat UCF, then Baylor and TCU before wins over TCU and WVU in the Tournament. While improving, they’ll have dead legs and UH’s firepower will be too much.

Julian Hammond III was a big problem for Houston in the first matchup. He scored 22 points, while shooting 5/7 from beyond the arc. UH will need to run him off the three-point line, but can’t afford to foul him in the paint, as he is a 91% free throw shooter. My “head of the snake” was combo forward Andrej Jakimovski in the prior game – he was held to three points (all from the line).

Colorado Personnel Report

(* Indicates Probable Starters)

*#23 – Andrej Jakimovski – 6’8″ – GR – Forward – (Reale Mutua Torino/ Washington State) – 10ppg, 5rpg.

• Head of the Snake;
• Big body forward and plays hard;
• Three-level scorer;
• Decent three-point shooter – 49/155 (32%). Up 2% since last matchup;
• Can play in the post if he has a mismatch;
• Good at driving to the rim.

*#8 – Bangot Dak – 6’11” – SO – Forward – 8ppg, 4rpg, 1bpg.

• EXTREMELY long/skinny/athletic forward;
• Excellent shot-blocker/affecter. Goes on the first move…shot fakes bother him;
• Panics under pressure. MONSTER is going to bother him;
• Decent scorer in the paint;
• Capable of shooting the three (will allow it) – 12/44 (27%); Down 5% since last game;
• They like to look for him in transition.

*#3 – Julian Hammond III – 6’2″ – SR – Guard – 13ppg, 3rpg, 3apg.

• Lead scoring guard;
• Best returner from last season;
• Good three-point shooter – 51/130 (39%);
• Outstanding free-throw shooter – 87/97 (90%).

*#6 – Trevor Baskin – 6’9″ – GR – Forward – (Colorado Mesa) – 7ppg, 5rpg, 2apg.

• Tall/thin forward;
• Best in the mid-range and in the paint; Solid post moves; Patient in the post;
• Gets to the free-throw line often but isn’t great once he gets there – 68/105 (65%);
• Underwhelming (but capable) three-point shooter – 6/25 (24%);
• Will struggle to keep the UH big-men off the boards.

*#11 – Javon Ruffin – 6’5″ – JR – Guard – 6ppg, 2rpg, 2apg.

• Rangy/thin guard;
• Looks to bring an offensive spark off the bench;
• Decent three-point shooter; Can shoot it from deep – 28/82 (34%);
• Capable of scoring off the bounce.

#7 – Sebastian Rancik – 6’9″ – FR – Forward – 6ppg, 3rpg.

• Tall/thin forward;
• I expect him to get bullied by J’Wan, Jojo, Ja’Vier, and Ced;
• Good three-point shooter – 16/62 (26%). Has attempted 30 threes and made only three since the UH game;
• Best when in the paint.

#35 – Assane Diop – 6’8″ – SO – Forward – 4ppg, 4rpg.

• Lengthy forward;
• Pretty good rebounder on both ends;
• Nice touch in the paint;
• Poor three-point shooter – 5/24 (21%).

#50 – Elijah Malone – 6’10” – GR – Center – (Grace College) – 8ppg, 3rpg.

• MASSIVE body/physical post player;
• Two-time NAIA All-American, but this ain’t the NAIA;
• Decent passer in the post. MONSTER will give him problems;
• Can’t jump over a sheet of paper, but uses his body to be physical in the paint;

#5 – RJ Smith – 6’3″ – SO – Guard – 6ppg, 3rpg, 38% 3pt.

• Outside shooter off the bench;
• Best outside shooter on the team – 33/86 (38%).

#15 – Felix Kossaras – 6’5″ – FR – Guard – 1ppg, 1rpg.

• Tall/skinny freshman guard;
• Poor outside shooter; 3/12 (25%);
• Has only attempted 32 shots on the season – 12/32 (38%).

Keys to Victory

1. Feed the post early. I would run the offense through J’Wan early. If they decide to go zone, I’d attack gaps in their defense. They don’t have anyone with the strength or skill to stop Wan in the post.
2. Kill them on the boards. They are huge, but most are thin or inexperienced. I expect a 10+ rebounding day from J’Wan AND Jojo (if they stay out of foul trouble).
3. Pressure, Pressure, Pressure them. Colorado has no true point guard on their roster. I could see them setting a season-high turnover rate if the referees allow Houston to Blitz and MONSTER without calling petty fouls.
4. Don’t settle when they go zone. They are going to go zone at some point. I am hoping Houston won’t settle for side-to-side, quick shots. I’d like to see them attack the gaps in the zone and get inside-out, three-point shot opportunities. The UH “Hi-Low” looks with J’Wan at the free throw line to score or pass to open shooters should work as well.