Before I get into it, it must be stated that the Houston Cougars football team saw a lot of offensive production leave through graduation, the NFL Draft, or the dreaded transfer portal.
Four starters on the offensive line are gone, including the 55th pick in the NFL Draft, Patrick Paul, while receivers who had 1559 yards (55.7% of UH’s total) and 11 touchdowns (50%) transferred. Combined with a new coaching staff, most people should have expected early-season struggles.
Against Rice, the offense produced 258 yards on the ground (before counting sacks), hitting the 250-yard mark for the first time since running for 280 against USF in week nine of the 2021 season. That was an encouraging sight for Coog fans after just 183 yards rushing through the first two games.
Smith and the offense found the endzone four times, one more time than the previous two games combined. Three touchdowns against Rice came on big plays: 65, 44, and 37 yards. But even with those exciting plays, there is reason to be concerned.
Run game struggles
Saturday, the Coogs had their biggest rushing output in nearly three seasons. On 39 designed runs, removing negative yardage from sacks, the offense ran for 253 yards. Six runs went for double-digit yardage, totaling 184 yards, meaning UH rushed for 69 yards on the other 33 carries (2.1 ypc). Long story short, the running game was very boom or bust.
The top rushers were Re’Shaun Sanford and Stacy Sneed, combining for 153 yards on 22 attempts. 120 of those yards came on three big plays of 65, 34, and 21-yard gains. Outside of that, the pair averaged 1.74 yards on 19 attempts. The pair also had six attempts that resulted in zero or negative yardage.
Sanford is averaging .4 yards before contact on his attempts this season, meaning he is doing a lot on his own to make plays, with nearly 90 percent of his output coming after contact. As a team, 66.3% of all rushing output has come after contact. PFF.com tracks +EPA%, which essentially tracks the percentage of successful plays over expectation to show consistency in a neat number. Houston’s +EPA% on run plays is 32.0, second worst amongst P4 teams.
The positive from the win over Rice is that the Coogs have dynamic ball carriers. Sanford, Sneed and Smith all showed big play ability, but the concern going forward is that big plays can’t be relied on to bail out stalling drives.
PASS GAME
After throwing for over 300 yards against Oklahoma in Week 2, the passing game regressed to a season-low 130 yards. Part of that was due to the success on the ground and only attempting a season-low 22 passes.
A big difference through three games, relative to last season’s offense, is the inability to push the ball downfield. Last season, Smith’s average depth of target was 8.3 yards. This season, that number is just 5.0. Against Rice, Smith completed just one pass that traveled in the air further than five yards passed the line of scrimmage. With the offensive line struggles thus far, it makes sense that offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay would be looking to get the ball to his talented skill players early and in space. Smith has been sacked ten times, and too often, he has to evade a free rusher because teams are able to confuse the front by disguising who will be blitzing.
With four new starters, I’d credit that to communication and preparation as much as I would to the players’ abilities. Most offensive linemen would tell you that the most important thing with an offensive line is continuity or familiarity.
The coaches can have the perfect plan, but at the end of the day, these guys just need reps together. There isn’t really an analytical stat to provide here, it’s just what my eyes show me watching film.
MOVING FORWARD
Going to Cincinnati to open conference play will be a good test of how the offensive line is progressing. Dontay Corleone is an NFL prospect getting comfortable after missing most of the summer and the opener with a blood clot scare. Corleone is very disruptive and doesn’t need the OL to miss assignments to make an impact. The interior OL needs to be ready to go.
At this point, Coog fans know there are dynamic playmakers outside and in the backfield. The offensive line needs to tighten up as a unit to allow them to continue to make plays. If they can figure this out, I think there is a bowl game in their future with the massive leap the defense appears to have taken.