Going into the 2025 season, I predicted that UH would go 7-5. After the comeback win against Oregon State, people have asked me if I am changing my expectations have changed.
The Coogs are currently 4-0, so it makes sense to recalibrate with 1/3 of the season in the books. It makes even more sense to get caught up in the excitement of having as many wins as we did in the last two seasons.
But that is precisely why I am not changing any prediction or expectation. Because to do so would be based purely on emotion. As great as this start has been, this team is still a massive work in progress. The offense was slow to get moving against SFA and Rice, they couldn’t finish drives against Colorado, and were basically absent for 54 minutes in Corvallis last week.
Don’t get me wrong, I love what I have seen so far. Even though it hasn’t been pretty for some, this team has been effective. In year two of the Fritz era, this program underwent a complete rebuild, right down to its foundation. Although the staff has added some better players, it will still take some time for them to mesh.
The main reason I am not changing anything is that it would alter the focus of my enjoyment. I love to watch teams develop and improve. I have to thank Kelvin Sampson for this. My favorite part about watching his teams is seeing how they grow and develop over the year. I love to see how they react to successes and failures, and this team has provided ample opportunities of both for me to enjoy.
Every game, this group of UH Football players has shown improvement. We have seen a good defense get better each week. We have seen the running game improve from SFA to Rice. We saw an improvement in the offensive line performance and passing game from Rice to Colorado. And then we saw what looked like a complete disaster at Oregon State turn into an incredible comeback, a team showing resiliency and learning how to win.
This week, the Coogs face their biggest test in a long time: a formidable Texas Tech team with a 4-0 record and a #11 ranking. If you judged this game by the online chatter, UH has no chance. Just like they had no chance against Kansas State last year when they were 13-point underdogs at home (UH is currently an 11.5-point underdog).
I have seen many people point out that this game is among the biggest games UH has played at TDECU. Of course, the biggest game was against third-ranked Louisville, led by the eventual Heisman Trophy winner and two-time NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson. The Coogs were 17-point dogs that day. How’d that work out? A 31-0 halftime lead, the Cardinals turned it over three times, had 15 penalties, and Jackson was sacked 11 times.
The point is, anything can happen on any given Saturday (or any other day ending in ‘y’). I hope for and love to see wins, and I can accept the losses; it is all part of competition. But what I am more focused on is how these results come about. I want to beat Tech because they are Tech. I want UH to be 5-0. But win this one or lose it, I still expect this season will end with a 7-5 record. Now, the secnd part of my prediction was that I wouldn’t be surprised if we were 10-3 with a title game loss. Right now, everything is still on the table, and I am going to enjoy the ride, no matter what happens.
