Going into the season, I thought Cincinnati could be pretty good. I’m not the only one: Jon Rothstein mentioned them several times in the preseason as a dark-horse to win the national championship. The Bearcats (17-11, 7-10) returned four starters and added a legit Big 12 talent in Dillon Mitchell from Texas.

But for some reason, they have struggled all season and will not get easier for them on Saturday as they play the #4 Houston Cougars (22-4, 16-1). This is a must-win game for the Bearcats to stay alive in hopes of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars win and clinch the outright Big 12 title.

Cincinnati needs this to be another classic Houston/Cincinnati rock fight. Several guys can score, but none rank in the national top 50 in any offensive categories. As a unit, they are ranked #23 in the nation in scoring defense, but Houston is ranked #1 in that category. They will need a huge game from their head of the snake, Jizzle James, to have a chance. He is their most talented player and tends to take some tough shots, but the Cougar defense may have something to say about that.

Cincinnati head coach Wes Miller has tried to build his roster like Kelvin Sampson has at UH. I expect a defensive battle, with an ugly win for the Coogs.

Cincinnati National Rankings

• Net – #47; Houston Ranked #3
• Kenpom – #53; Houston Ranked #3
• AP Poll – #NR; Houston Ranked #4
• Coaches Poll – #NR; Houston Ranked #4

Cincinnati Offensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

None…

Bearcats Defensive Rankings (Top 50 in Nation)

#12 – Fouls Per Game: 13.6

#23 – Scoring Defense: 65ppg.

Cincinnati Offense Notes

• They are not a great offensive team, but they have several guys that can get hot. The Coogs will need to identify who that is on Saturday and look to take them away.

Bearcats Defense Notes

• Cincy primarily runs a half-court, man-to-man defense.
• They may run a 1-3-1 Zone.

Cincinnati Personnel Report

*#2 – Jizzle James – 6’3″ – SO – Guard – 13ppg, 3rpg, 3.75apg.

• Smaller/electric combo guard;
• Can score off the bounce; Takes some TOUGH shots at times;
• Nice mid-range jumper and fade-away;
• Not afraid to shoot the three, but is below average: 37/120 (31%).

*#1 – Day Day Thomas – 6’1″ – SR – Guard – (Kilgore College) – 9ppg, 3rpg, 3apg.

• Quick point guard;
• Can shoot the three from deep – 29/78 (37%);
• Solid mid-range shooter;
• Capable of getting to the rim.

*#23 – Dillon Mitchell – 6’8″ – JR – Forward – (Texas) – 10ppg, 7rpg.

• LEFTY;
• SUPER athletic forward. Possibly the best dunker in the Big 12;
• At his best when he gets in the paint;
• Will shoot the three and that’s a risk I’m willing to take. He’s 7/30 (23%);
• My KJ Adams Rule – Keep him out of the paint. Make him beat you with jump shots.

*#55 – Aziz Bandaogo – 7’0″ – 5th – Forward – (Utah Valley) – 8ppg, 6rpg, 1.5bpg.

• Tall/athletic post player;
• Solid passer out of the post;
• Best at put backs off an offensive rebound;
• Can score right around the basket;
• Outstanding rebounder/shot blocker;
• Has not attempted an outside shot.

*#10 – Josh Reed – 6’7″ – JR – Guard – 4ppg, 2rpg.

• LEFTY;
• Tall guard and one of the more improved players in the conference;
• Long wing-span;
• Good at driving to the rim;
• When he backs a player down, he sweeps under their arms to draw a foul (don’t reach…go straight up!);
• Solid three-point shooter – 13/36 (36%).

#0 – Dan Skillings Jr. – 6’6″ – Jr – Guard – 9ppg, 4rpg.

• Long/skinny guard;
• Was the head of the snake last year, but his minutes are way down this season; He was a problem at times for Houston last season;
• Can shoot it from DEEP, but his percentage is down some; 23/70 (33%);
• Solid at slashing to the rim.

#41 – Simas Lukosius – 6’8″ – SR – Guard/ Forward – (Butler) – 11ppg, 3rpg, 2apg.

• Has been battling a shoulder injury after getting run over by a car on campus;
• Big-bodied guard;
• Likes to shoot the three going to his right. Leads the team in 3pt attempts – 56/155 (36%).

#14 – Tyler Betsey – 6’8″ – FR – Forward – 4ppg, 2rpg.

• Tall forward off the bench;
• Solid outside shooter for his size – 25/75 (33%);

#22 – Arrinten Page – 6’11” – SO – Forward – (USC) – 4ppg, 3rpg.

• Lengthy forward off the bench;
• Doesn’t shoot many three-pointers…but maybe he should. He’s 4/9 (44%);
• Gets to the free-throw line fairly often in his limited minutes.

Keys to Victory

1. Identify who is hot. The Bearcats don’t have a legit #1 option on offense, so they’ll go to whoever has the hot hand. Houston will need to identify that individual and look to take them away.
2. Transition Offense. Cincy is a good defensive team. Houston should look to get some easy baskets in offensive transition from live-ball turnovers.
3. Keep Bandaogo and Mitchell off the glass. Bandaogo is huge and Mitchell can jump through the roof. The Coog big-men will need to box them out and not allow them to get extra looks for their offense.
4. Force Mitchell to shoot jump-shots. He may shut me up…but I think he is bad on offense when he can’t get to the rim or in the paint because he struggles with his shooting. That’s a risk I’m willing to take. Houston lost him a few times last year at UT, and he had some big-time dunks.
5. Whatever it takes. Win and you win the Big 12 outright. Houston will need to do whatever it takes to beat Cincinnati. First on the floor, boxing out, creating chaos on defense, blocking shots, and deflecting passes. I believe they will lay it all on the line to win Saturday.