Expectations need to be reconsidered for this season and the program as a whole.
Let’s start with this: 185 of 264 starts from last season are unavailable this week against TCU (6 starts due to injuries to Tony Mathis and Matt Byrnes). The other 179 starts have moved on through transfer, graduation or the NFL Draft. 15 of the 22 starters from last year’s opener against UTSA are gone.
Developing a culture is important to success, and having that many new faces means you’re starting from ground zero in every facet, more so with a new staff leading those players. This should never have been seen as an overnight transformation. To compare: Kelvin Sampson started off with a losing season and didn’t get to the NCAA Tournament until year four, and he only needs 13 players to buy in.
Most of the UH fanbase seemed happy to move on from Dana Holgorsen and equally glad to have Willie Fritz as the man to come in and right the ship. And here we are, five games into the new regime and clinging to whatever hope is available.
Outside of the win against Rice, the team has found the endzone just twice in four games, including donuts in the last two outings. Still, I think Fritz deserves an opportunity to establish his culture and build his roster before fans turn away. Even with how poorly things are going.
My question is, what do fans expect from their football team? Regular bowl appearances? Competing for conference titles year in and year out? National championship trophies? The expanded playoff may give fans the delusion that anyone can hoist the trophy at the end of the year, but we know that’s false.
A small handful of fans are ready to send Fritz on his way, and that’s where my confusion lies. Again, what is the expectation for the University of Houston football team? A school that has only won their conference twice this century and finished a season ranked in the Top 25 just three times in 35 years.
I say this as someone who believes this is a school with massive potential for success—fertile recruiting in the city and state where top programs come to find talent. The move to a Power 4 conference has already seen a boost in facilities, but at the same time, the results are the results. Success has been sporadic since the Southwest Conference days, and Bill Yeoman ain’t walking through the door.
When Holgorsen was hired, he made the point that he wasn’t looking to leave and wanted to build something here. It was a rollercoaster ride that peaked with a 12 win season in the AAC before ending like it started, a four-win season in 2023.
Before winning 23 games in his last two seasons at Tulane, Fritz dealt with three losing seasons in New Orleans, including 2-10 in 2021. The Coogs are staring the latter right in the face. Things may feel as bad as ever, but that should be this season’s silver lining. It should also give perspective to how you’re watching the rest of this season. After the Iowa State game, I mentioned on CATS! not to get emotionally invested. Obviously that was dumb. But don’t get too tied to the final score of the last seven games.
UH is a developmental program, just like Houston Hoops has been. Kelvin Sampson has not feasted on five-star talent; he’s selected the right guys and developed them. The same will go for football. This is likely going to be a roster filled with three-star recruits that the coaching staff develops and maximizes their potential. The work the staff has done so far in recruiting should be encouraging. Sampson is now getting five-star guys but that has not been the norm over the first decade.
If Fritz is able to work his magic again by recruiting, retaining, and developing good players, the potential for UH Football is great. To get to that point, it will be a journey. The biggest satisfaction is being there for everything – the good and the bad. Stick with your team, celebrate the small successes, but be realistic this year and next.