Ends in 4. Saturday was my 200th in-person UH game, but we now have a habit forming: Season openers in years that end in 4. I’ve experienced three of them, and they’ve not been great. And they’ve been somewhat similar.
In 2004, UH lost to Rice 10-7 at Reliant Stadium. UH did not score for the first 59 minutes 51 seconds. The UH line could not block, and Rice had nine sacks.
In 2014, UH lost to UTSA 27-7 to open TDECU Stadium. UH did not score for the first 58 minutes 56 seconds. The UH line could not block, and UTSA had four sacks.
And Saturday, UH lost to UNLV 27-7 at TDECU. UH did not score for the first 59 minutes. The UH line could not block and UNLV had five sacks.
Three games, three decades, three eras, three coaches, one result. Seven points for UH in mop-up and a disastrous OL.
Let’s just dive into this: Ui Ale got the ball off on time in the final drive of the game, something Donovan Smith really struggled with. Ui had no hesitation and looked like a confident playmaker. Of course, this was the final drive of a blowout, so no one should overreact.
After the game, Fritz said the staff needs to do a better job of putting players in a position to be successful and that they have to know the players’ limitations. If Donovan starts against OU, and he absolutely should, a key will be how the staff puts him in better situations.
For his part, Donovan will have to perform better and not be so hesitant. He looked rusty Saturday but also unsure of himself. Part of that is the OL play, but Donovan created plenty of problems: he gave up seven points on the Pick Six and didn’t lead the offense to a score. Now, I don’t think you change starting QBs after one bad game – especially with a new staff and terminology, new in-helmet communication, and coming off an injury – but #1 has to know he can’t have another game like that.
If Zeon Chriss is healthy enough to play in Norman, I’d expect him to get a few more series (that was the plan vs. UNLV, too). And I’d have to guess Ui gets some time as well.
Pro Football Focus grades college games; as you’d expect, they were awful for week one. The worst among them was the pass rush. Except for Nadame Tucker, all DL graded out below average in pass rush, which is 60 in the PFF formula. Some, including starters, were awful.
The right side of the line gave up 7 of the 11 pressures on Donovan Smith. Meanwhile, both guys on the left side of the offensive line graded out in the low 50s in run blocking, as did RT Jake Wiley. It will be a long year if your tackles can’t set the edge.
Here’s some good: 3 pass breakups against six UNLV completions. A.J. Haulcy ended UNLV’s first drive with a big hit that jarred the ball loose from the receiver when a catch would have extended the drive. Haulcy also had an interception in the end zone.
Mekhi Mews made a great play on a punt return and broke a couple of tackles. But Noah Guzman was (correctly) called for a hold at the line of scrimmage. You can’t hold a guy that would have never been in the play. Guzman won’t make that mistake again.
Mews also made a nice grab and had 50 yards after the catch.
Jamal Morris played a nice game, as did his fellow starting LB Mike Batton.
We’ve written about the magic number a lot. UH’s magic number has been 28 since the Art Briles era began in 2003. If UH gives 28 or less, there’s about a 90% chance of victory. Last year, we added 24, 31, and 35 points to our chart:
| Coach | ≤ 24 | ≤ 28 | ≤ 31 | ≤ 35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briles | 22-4 | 28-4 | 31-10 | 32-13 |
| Sumlin | 21-0 | 26-2 | 27-4 | 31-11 |
| Levine | 17-4 | 19-5 | 19-7 | 21-8 |
| Herman | 16-1 | 17-1 | 21-1 | 22-1 |
| Major | 10-1 | 13-2 | 13-2 | 13-4 |
| Dana | 21-1 | 24-3 | 25-7 | 27-10 |
| Willie | 0-1 | |||
| Total | 107-12 | 127-18 | 136-31 | 146-47 |
| Percentage | 89.9% | 87.6% | 81.4% | 75.6% |
This is a good way to see if your defense is doing the job – a TD a quarter. With this, you can also see how often the team gives up 36 or more. Under Dana Holgorsen, the Cougars held teams to 35 or fewer points in just 62.7% of games. That’s the worst percentage since Briles:
| 35 or less | Total games | Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holgorsen | 37 | 59 | 62.7 |
| Applewhite | 17 | 26 | 65.4 |
| Briles | 45 | 62 | 72.6 |
| Levine | 29 | 38 | 76.3 |
| Sumlin | 42 | 52 | 80.8 |
| Herman | 23 | 26 | 88.4 |
Saturday, the defense gave up just 20 points (UNLV scored 27).
For all the talk about the in-helmet communication speeding up the game, UH ran 63 plays against UNLV (the Rebels ran 62). 126 teams have played as of Sunday morning, and UH is 123rd nationally in rushing and 121st in yards per carry. Willie Fritz admitted after the game that they got away from the run.