With 20 games to go in the regular season – two more out-of-conference games and then 18 Big games – the Houston Cougars sit at 10-1. This season has been entertaining to watch as the program integrates young players with established veterans. But despite how well they have played as of late, there are still some areas for improvement. Given the history of this program, the question isn’t if improvement will happen; it is when it will happen.
Here are a few things I expect to see improvement in as the season progresses:
Rebounding – Kelvin Sampson built his program with rebounding as part of its core strength. Currently, UH is #54 in rebound rate with 53.9% (and 81st in total rebounds). That isn’t up to the UH standard. The offensive rebound rate has been solid, ranking #23 at 37.4% (and 27th in total offensive boards), but the defensive rebounding rate has struggled, ranking #108 at 73.5% (and 183rd in total defensive rebounds).
The expected improvement will come naturally for a Kelvin Sampson team. UH is playing a lot of young guys, and it takes time for them all to understand where they need to be before a shot goes up. This time last year, UH was #15 in offensive rebounding rate and finished #10. They were #80 in defensive rebounding rate and finished #47.
Chris Cenac has been fantastic on the glass so far, with a defensive rebound rate of 26.6% (and 5.6 defensive rebounds per game). JoJo Tugler is currently at 13.7% (2.7 defensive rebounds per game), largely due to limited minutes because of foul trouble. When he gets back to his career norm of 16-18% the Coogs will be rolling.
Currently, UH is second nationally in extra chances created per game. Once the defensive rebounding catches up, this team will look a lot different.
At the rim – I expect improved production at the rim (inside of 4.5 feet) and points in the paint. I am not expecting UH to take a lot more of those shots because this offense doesn’t usually operate that way. What I am expecting is that the Coogs will be more efficient in scoring in those areas.
UH is shooting 68.3% at the rim, which is in the 85th percentile of college basketball. My issue is that UH ranks among the lowest in FG attempts at the rim. It is a similar story with shots in the paint. The Cougars are shooting 52.2% in the paint, which is in the 94th percentile, but they’re in the 66th percentile in attempts.
The solution here is much like the one for rebounding: Experience and time. Cenac has been a monster, shooting 83% at the rim and 57% in the paint, but less than half his shots come from those spots. He is being asked to play a different position than he is used to, so as he adjusts, he will find his most effective spots more often.
JoJo and Milos Uzan are the X factors here. They just need to fall back to their historical norms, and everything is excellent. JoJo is currently shooting 60% at the rim and 45% in the paint. Last year, he shot 67.5% and 41.8%, so he is not far off from where he has been. Milos has struggled based on the standards he set last year and is still finding his footing. Last year, he was pretty balanced, taking 28% of his shots in the paint, 24.1% from mid-range, and 37% from outside the arc. This year, over 50% of his shots are coming from 3, where he is shooting 25.4% while shooting 34.6% from inside the paint. I’d be alarmed if I didn’t see him struggle in 2024, then turn it up once January 2025 hit.
This team has everything it needs to be special. The parts are in place, and all that is missing is reps. Small things are starting to come together, and once this team hits its stride, then the race is on.
