This is the first-ever mailbag for GoCoogs.com. We receive questions via email, twitter, and the Veer message board. Each week, dos Coogs will respond in-depth to a question or two.
Here we go!
A Reader Asks: That game was hard to stomach this weekend. I think we can still win the conference just need some things to go our way. Where do you think we go from here?
Ryan Monceaux – publishes GoCoogs.com:
As hard as it is to say, I think this loss means the Coogs are out of the NY6 and our focus should be on the AAC title. Tomorrow, I’ll dive deep into the NY6 numbers to show my reasoning.
A lot of UH fans still swear that we’re in the NY6 running with a win over UCF but that’s seeing it as an us vs. Fresno State situation. Fresno has a very good chance to go to the NY6 if UCF loses but they the Bulldogs are not the only contender.
Before I go any further, the CFP setup should be addressed. If this were just about winning games on the field, that’d be one thing. But the CFP Playoff Committee isn’t that. Selecting a G5 representative to the NY6 is just that: a selection. Someone has to make a decision between 5-6 teams and even if we win the the AAC crown, we’re still in a bad spot to be selected.
For UH to go to the NY6, the first step would be the Coogs winning out. After Saturday’s embarrassment, that’s hardly a guarantee. Four teams are still alive just in the West.
SMU needs just 1 slip up from UH to control their own destiny. Tulane needs a win over us and an SMU loss to be in control. Memphis needs lots of things to happen but they still have games with SMU and UH.
At this point, UH needs to get out of their own press clippings, get out of the NY6 talk, and just dominate in the last 3 games. If you still think the NY6 is possible, that’s cool. But style points matter now. With a couple close wins, even an AAC title can’t save us.
AAC CHAMPS: A Few Scenarios
Let’s say the Coogs do win out. That puts them 10-2. The prevailing thought is they have to go on the road to beat UCF in the title game. And remember, you must win the conference championship to even be considered for the NY6.
One possible wrinkle: the AAC title game could be with Cincinnati. If the Bearcats can beat USF this weekend, it sets up a showdown next week at UCF. A Cinci win over the Knights would put the AAC title game host spot up for grabs. This is where it gets tricky.
The Playoff Committee rankings would choose the championship host. If Cinci beats UCF and enters the CFP rankings before the final week of the season (on November 20th), they would host with a win over ECU. If they lost the ECU game and UH wins out, we’d host due to a 7-1 conference record (vs. a 6-2 for Cinci).
If Cinci and UH both finish 7-1 and neither team is in the CFP Rankings that are released on November 20th, computer rankings would determine the host. The American bylaws say that a composite average of four computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) would be used to determine the host.
As it stands, this doesn’t work out for UH either:
So if it’s UC, we’re heading north on December 1. If it’s UCF, we’re going to the Sunshine state. There’s no realistic scenario that we host against either UC or UCF.
So the goal needs to be winning the division and getting ready to go on the road to win an AAC title.
Read Part 2 of our Mailbag as Brad Towns responds:
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