Seedology: Could UH Be A Two-Seed?

Saturday, the NCAA’s first-16 reveal put the Coogs at #11 in the country and a three-seed in the East Region. Since then, 5 of the committee’s  top-nine seeds have lost. Below is the top 16 (bold indicates a loss since the rankings debuted while each asterisk indicates a Quadrant 1 win according to the NET):

1. Duke**
2. Tennessee
3. Virginia*
4. Gonzaga
5. Kentucky*
6. Michigan*
7. UNC
8. Michigan State*
9. Purdue
10. Kansas*
11. Houston*
12. Marquette*
13. Iowa State
14. Nevada
15. Louisville (2)
16. Wisconsin (2)

Note: If you’re unfamiliar with Quadrant 1 and the NET, check out last week’s seedology article

If the Committee reseeded today, I could see the Cougars moving past Purdue but not UNC (their loss was to #3 Virginia). UH would likely move up to 10 and still be a three-seed.

The Brackets

Here are a few major-outlet brackets:

USA Today: 2 | ESPN: 3 | CBS: 3 | Yahoo: 3 | Fox: 3

USA Today and ESPN both moved the Cougars up a line since last week. This USA Today graphic is fun to look at:

USA Today’s East Bracket

Bracket Matrix now has 108 different brackets in the list. UH is currently a 3-seed (T-9th) according to the matrix and appears in all 108 brackets.

The vast majority of those brackets have UH on the 3-line but 8 of 108 brackets have UH a two-seed. One predicts UH as a one-seed, two others as a four-seed, and an outlier predictor-model has the Cougars a five-seed.

But when you only look at the most-recent projections, those built after Michigan and Kentucky’s losses on Tuesday night, the Coogs look a little better: of those 32 brackets, 5 project the Coogs on the one- or two-line (data as of 8 a.m. on 2/14).

The Numbers

Here’s UH’s Nitty Gritty report (data through Tuesday’s games):

Record: 23-1
AAC Record: 10-1
Road Record: 6-1
Neutral Record: 0-0
Quadrant 1: 4-1
Quadrant 2: 8-0
Quadrant 3: 3-0
Quadrant 4: 8-0
SOS: 37
Non-conf SOS: 135
RPI: 3 (CBS)

The RPI no longer matters in the selection process but it’s relevant to know.

Besides the NET, the NCAA Team Sheets include two other groups of rankings: résumé and quality. KPI and Strength of Record combine as the résumé and BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin are the quality.

Here’s how the Coogs stack up in the individual rankings:

KPI: 4
SOR: 9
BPI: 19
Pom: 19
Sag: 19

The Coogs have made a nice jump in the KPI and SOR from last week inched up in Sagarin from 20. When averaged and ranked against other teams, UH is 7th in résumé and 19th in quality.

Subscriber-Only Analysis

Go deeper: Next, we look at UH’s Q1/Q2 wins and remaining games. We’ll explore how UH’s overall résumé and upcoming schedule compares to other teams fighting for two- and three-seeds. Also, we’ll analyze other relevant data for the 9 teams that have a legitimate shot at the two- and three-line. The following is subscriber-only content. Subscriber Sign In

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